Zaire Hayes
Texas Southern · 2025–26 · 26 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
720:31 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 26
- Minutes per game
- 27:43
- Points per game
- 10.0
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 1.8 / 1.2
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 10.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Per 40 minutes | 14.4 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 3.2 |
| Season totals | 259 | 48 | 30 | 23 | 4 | 35 | 57 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 88–205 | 42.9% | 7.9 | 11.4 |
| 2P | 50–106 | 47.2% | 4.1 | 5.9 |
| 3P | 38–99 | 38.4% | 3.8 | 5.5 |
| FT | 45–53 | 84.9% | 2.0 | 2.9 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52.2% | 56.7% | 48.3% | 25.9% | 0.86 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
TX Southern · Low and other · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $5K
- 80% range $1K to $29K
- Median share of team pool
- 4.1%
- team pool $175K, 80% range $65K to $465K
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $4K to $5K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $1K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 63.5%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
TX Southern: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TX Southern | $5Kspeculative | $1K to $29K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | -2.4 | -3.8 to -1.1 | Sufficient evidence | -0.8 | -1.6 | +2.5range +1.9 to +3.0 | 2,552 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | TX Southern | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -2.1 | -3.2 to -1.1 | Sufficient evidence | -0.1 | -2.0 | +1.3range +1.0 to +1.7 | 1,441 | Season detail | |
| 2024 | TX Southern | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -0.4 | -1.3 to +0.5 | Sufficient evidence | +0.2 | -0.6 | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.9 | 808 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 25:35 | 27:43 | 15:51–38:58 | |
| Points | 7.0 | 10.0 | 0.0–25.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 35.4% | 48.3% | 0.0%–90.0% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Alabama A&M | L 74–85 | 29:21 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 75.0% |
| 2026-03-05 | Prairie View | L 59–70 | 28:58 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 31.3% |
| 2026-02-28 | Jackson St. | W 82–57 | 26:58 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7-12 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 70.8% |
| 2026-02-26 | Alcorn | W 92–87 | 26:20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-21 | Mississippi Val. | L 71–72 | 16:18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-19 | Ark.-Pine Bluff | W 83–64 | 21:25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 40.0% |
| 2026-02-16 | Southern U. | W 74–73 | 22:02 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 20.0% |
| 2026-02-14 | Grambling | W 82–79 | 37:17 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6-11 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 72.7% |
| 2026-02-09 | Bethune-Cookman | L 69–79 | 31:35 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 38.9% |
| 2026-02-07 | Florida A&M | W 62–57 | 31:58 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 14.3% |
| 2026-01-31 | Prairie View | L 78–85 | 36:26 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 58.3% |
| 2026-01-27 | Alabama St. | W 96–64 | 27:06 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6-11 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 68.2% |
| 2026-01-24 | Alabama A&M | W 89–74 | 20:01 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-19 | Jackson St. | L 89–94 | 36:12 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 38.9% |
| 2026-01-17 | Alcorn | W 72–71 | 37:30 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 25.0% |
| 2026-01-12 | Mississippi Val. | W 84–51 | 24:42 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4-7 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 85.7% |
| 2026-01-10 | Ark.-Pine Bluff | L 66–74 | 38:58 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 5-5 | 37.5% |
| 2026-01-05 | Grambling | L 67–84 | 33:15 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10-16 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 78.1% |
| 2026-01-03 | Southern U. | L 73–84 | 26:51 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 60.0% |
| 2025-12-22 | Abilene Christian | L 68–75 | 28:47 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 31.3% |
| 2025-12-17 | NC State | L 72–108 | 28:36 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 7-7 | 45.5% |
| 2025-12-14 | Minnesota | L 53–89 | 27:48 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 28.6% |
| 2025-12-06 | Sam Houston | L 70–82 | 26:51 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 43.8% |
| 2025-11-20 | Vanderbilt | L 74–109 | 15:51 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 90.0% |
| 2025-11-15 | Texas St. | L 67–77 | 20:25 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6-8 | 2-2 | 3-5 | 87.5% |
| 2025-11-12 | Samford | L 90–93 | 19:00 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 64.3% |