Towson

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Towson, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Dylan Williamson	92.5%	+1.8range +0.9 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+7.6range +6.9 to +8.3Sufficient evidence	$64KspeculativeLoading	$22K to $180KLoading
Tyler Tejada	86.9%	+0.6range -0.6 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+6.5range +5.6 to +7.3Sufficient evidence	$33KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $99KLoading
Jack Doumbia Jr.	55.7%	+1.9range +0.5 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.1 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	$39KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $120KLoading
Caleb Embeya	52.6%	-0.1range -1.2 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.2 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $54KLoading
Tyler Coleman	48.4%	-1.3range -2.7 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.4 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $35KLoading
Jaquan Womack	44.5%	+0.9range -0.4 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +3.0 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$22KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $68KLoading
Mor Seck	36.7%	+0.9range -0.7 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.4 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $56KLoading
Tyler Schmidt	32.9%	-0.1range -1.5 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+2.3range +2.0 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $34KLoading
Chike Ndefo	27.5%	+0.2range -1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+2.0range +1.7 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $31KLoading
Ryan Conway	16.4%	+0.8range -0.3 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.1 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $29KLoading
Abdou Samb	2.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Jaiden Cole	2.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Ryan Skerry	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $260K; 80% Range $97K to $675K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $245K to $270K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Dylan Williamson	92.5%	$64K	$22K to $180K	23.0%	$61K to $66K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyler Tejada	86.9%	$33K	$7K to $99K	14.8%	$31K to $34K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jack Doumbia Jr.	55.7%	$39K	$13K to $120K	13.8%	$37K to $40K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Caleb Embeya	52.6%	$16K	$3K to $54K	7.9%	$15K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyler Coleman	48.4%	$8K	$1K to $35K	4.5%	$8K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaquan Womack	44.5%	$22K	$6K to $68K	9.1%	$21K to $23K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mor Seck	36.7%	$18K	$5K to $56K	7.5%	$17K to $18K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyler Schmidt	32.9%	$10K	$2K to $34K	5.0%	$10K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chike Ndefo	27.5%	$10K	$2K to $31K	4.8%	$10K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ryan Conway	16.4%	$10K	$3K to $29K	3.8%	$9K to $10K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Abdou Samb	2.7%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaiden Cole	2.6%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Ryan Skerry	0.7%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$260K	$97K to $675K	100%	$245K to $270K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Towson University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,567,095	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,567,095
Athletics department expenses	$29,350,327
Athletics department revenue	$29,350,327

Coverage and exclusions

32 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,567,095	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,567,095	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	4
2 days	5
3 or more days	22

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology