Stetson

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Stetson, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Ethan Copeland	79.1%	+0.3range -0.7 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.6 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$47KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $155KLoading
Jake Johnson	70.3%	-0.5range -1.7 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.9 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$25KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $86KLoading
Collin Kuhl	57.4%	+1.1range -0.3 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.8 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	$50KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $185KLoading
Calvin Sirmans III	57.2%	-1.6range -2.6 to -0.4Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.1 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $43KLoading
Finley Sheridan	48.2%	-0.4range -1.5 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$19KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $67KLoading
Alex Doyle	44.7%	-2.7range -4.2 to -1.4Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $27KLoading
Jamie Phillips Jr.	36.4%	-1.5range -3.3 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $37KLoading
Matar Diop	31.3%	-2.5range -3.7 to -1.1Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.0 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $22KLoading
Daniel Macgregor	30.4%	-1.2range -2.2 to -0.1Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $32KLoading
J.R. Leonard	15.6%	-2.6range -3.4 to -1.7Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.5 to +0.8Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $12KLoading
Sean Morgan	14.4%	-2.1range -2.9 to -1.2Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.5 to +0.7Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $12KLoading
Janusz Ratowski	13.0%	-0.6range -1.8 to +0.8Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $20KLoading
Miller McGowan	0.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $4KLoading
Isaac Jones	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $4KLoading
Ben Gladieux	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $4KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $235K; 80% Range $88K to $635K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $225K to $240K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 15; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Ethan Copeland	79.1%	$47K	$10K to $155K	18.5%	$45K to $47K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jake Johnson	70.3%	$25K	$2K to $86K	13.1%	$24K to $25K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Collin Kuhl	57.4%	$50K	$13K to $185K	18.0%	$48K to $51K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Calvin Sirmans III	57.2%	$9K	$1K to $43K	6.8%	$9K to $10K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Finley Sheridan	48.2%	$19K	$2K to $67K	9.5%	$18K to $19K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Alex Doyle	44.7%	$5K	$1K to $27K	2.0%	$4K to $5K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jamie Phillips Jr.	36.4%	$8K	$1K to $37K	4.9%	$8K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matar Diop	31.3%	$5K	$1K to $22K	2.5%	$4K to $5K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Daniel Macgregor	30.4%	$8K	$1K to $32K	4.8%	$8K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
J.R. Leonard	15.6%	$3K	$1K to $12K	1.0%	$3K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sean Morgan	14.4%	$3K	$1K to $12K	1.5%	$3K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Janusz Ratowski	13.0%	$6K	$1K to $20K	2.9%	$6K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Miller McGowan	0.9%	$1K	$1K to $4K	0.7%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaac Jones	0.7%	$1K	$1K to $4K	0.7%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Ben Gladieux	0.5%	$1K	$1K to $4K	0.7%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$235K	$88K to $635K	100%	$225K to $240K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Stetson University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,225,101	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,225,101
Athletics department expenses	$25,375,464
Athletics department revenue	$25,375,464

Coverage and exclusions

26 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (87%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

4 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,225,101	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,225,101	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	9
3 or more days	18

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.7
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	3
Longest run of consecutive away games	6

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology