Portland

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Portland, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Joel Foxwell	88.8%	+0.0range -1.1 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.1 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$95KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $260KLoading
Garrett Nuckolls	65.2%	-0.8range -2.3 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.8 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$45KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $140KLoading
James O'Donnell	56.7%	+0.0range -1.5 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.7 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	$61KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $185KLoading
Cameron Williams	52.5%	-1.5range -2.6 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.1 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$30KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $110KLoading
Dante Censori-Hercules	52.2%	+0.4range -0.7 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.7 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	$84KspeculativeLoading	$21K to $265KLoading
Jermaine Ballisager Webb	51.7%	-0.4range -1.7 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.4 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$48KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $140KLoading
Mikah Ballew	51.0%	-2.1range -3.2 to -1.0Sufficient evidence	+2.3range +1.9 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $79KLoading
Matus Hronsky	40.0%	-0.8range -1.9 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.8 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$32KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $105KLoading
Timo George	19.5%	+2.0range +1.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.3 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	$61KspeculativeLoading	$20K to $240KLoading
NaVaughn Long	10.6%	-1.2range -1.7 to -0.5Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $26KLoading
Kelson Gebbers	5.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$4Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $10KLoading
Samuel Noland	4.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$4Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $10KLoading
Riley Parker	1.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$4Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $10KLoading
Preston Lee	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$4Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $10KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $605K; 80% Range $270K to $1.30M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $570K to $660K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Joel Foxwell	88.8%	$95K	$9K to $260K	17.7%	$90K to $105K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Garrett Nuckolls	65.2%	$45K	$3K to $140K	10.1%	$43K to $49K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
James O'Donnell	56.7%	$61K	$7K to $185K	11.3%	$58K to $66K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cameron Williams	52.5%	$30K	$3K to $110K	7.0%	$29K to $33K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dante Censori-Hercules	52.2%	$84K	$21K to $265K	13.0%	$80K to $92K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jermaine Ballisager Webb	51.7%	$48K	$5K to $140K	9.6%	$45K to $52K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mikah Ballew	51.0%	$15K	$2K to $79K	4.0%	$14K to $17K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matus Hronsky	40.0%	$32K	$4K to $105K	6.8%	$30K to $34K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Timo George	19.5%	$61K	$20K to $240K	8.6%	$57K to $66K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
NaVaughn Long	10.6%	$9K	$3K to $26K	1.9%	$8K to $10K	$4K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kelson Gebbers	5.3%	$4K	$2K to $10K	0.7%	$4K in all four	$4K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Samuel Noland	4.2%	$4K	$2K to $10K	0.7%	$4K in all four	$4K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Riley Parker	1.6%	$4K	$2K to $10K	0.7%	$4K in all four	$4K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Preston Lee	0.6%	$4K	$2K to $10K	0.7%	$4K in all four	$4K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$605K	$270K to $1.30M	100%	$570K to $660K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Portland (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,575,365	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,575,365
Athletics department expenses	$22,516,434
Athletics department revenue	$22,516,435

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (91%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$3,575,365	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,575,365	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	4
2 days	3
3 or more days	24

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.6
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	2
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology