Oklahoma

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Oklahoma, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Xzayvier Brown	79.9%	+0.5range -0.9 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+5.9range +5.1 to +6.6Sufficient evidence	$330KspeculativeLoading	$48K to $570KLoading
Nijel Pack	76.2%	+3.0range +1.7 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	+6.9range +6.2 to +7.6Sufficient evidence	$640KspeculativeLoading	$405K to $1.05MLoading
Tae Davis	74.0%	+2.2range +1.0 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+6.3range +5.6 to +6.9Sufficient evidence	$495KspeculativeLoading	$285K to $740KLoading
Derrion Reid	68.2%	+0.5range -0.9 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.3 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$290KspeculativeLoading	$45K to $500KLoading
Mohamed Wague	56.4%	+4.6range +3.2 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	+5.9range +5.2 to +6.3Sufficient evidence	$670KspeculativeLoading	$410K to $1.35MLoading
Jadon Jones	43.7%	+2.3range +1.5 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.5 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$325KspeculativeLoading	$205K to $485KLoading
Dayton Forsythe	31.5%	+1.2range -0.2 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.2 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$185KspeculativeLoading	$64K to $305KLoading
Kirill Elatontsev	22.3%	+2.4range +1.5 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	+2.0range +1.8 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$185KspeculativeLoading	$115K to $305KLoading
Kuol Atak	18.4%	+1.5range +0.4 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.4 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$130KspeculativeLoading	$66K to $195KLoading
Jeff Nwankwo	17.2%	-0.3range -1.2 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.1 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$72KspeculativeLoading	$25K to $135KLoading
Kai Rogers	11.6%	+0.4range -0.6 to +1.5Limited evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Limited evidence	$69KspeculativeLoading	$31K to $115KLoading
Reid Lovelace	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Jake Hansen	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.55M; 80% Range $2.60M to $4.90M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.55M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Xzayvier Brown	79.9%	$330K	$48K to $570K	9.7%	$330K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nijel Pack	76.2%	$640K	$405K to $1.05M	17.4%	$640K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Tae Davis	74.0%	$495K	$285K to $740K	14.3%	$495K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Derrion Reid	68.2%	$290K	$45K to $500K	8.7%	$290K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mohamed Wague	56.4%	$670K	$410K to $1.35M	18.2%	$670K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Jadon Jones	43.7%	$325K	$205K to $485K	9.1%	$325K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Dayton Forsythe	31.5%	$185K	$64K to $305K	5.5%	$185K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Kirill Elatontsev	22.3%	$185K	$115K to $305K	5.1%	$185K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Kuol Atak	18.4%	$130K	$66K to $195K	3.8%	$130K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Jeff Nwankwo	17.2%	$72K	$25K to $135K	2.2%	$72K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Kai Rogers	11.6%	$69K	$31K to $115K	2.1%	$69K in all four	$27K	Limited evidence
Reid Lovelace	0.4%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Jake Hansen	0.1%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.55M	$2.60M to $4.90M	100%	$3.55M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Oklahoma-Norman Campus (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$9,769,244
Men's basketball expenses	$14,250,771
Athletics department expenses	$234,426,470
Athletics department revenue	$234,426,470

Coverage and exclusions

34 of 37 games passed lineup acceptance (92%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 37 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$9,769,244	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$14,250,771	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	3
3 or more days	33

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	2
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology