Ohio St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Ohio St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Bruce Thornton	90.4%	+6.3range +5.3 to +7.4Sufficient evidence	+9.3range +8.5 to +10.0Sufficient evidence	$1.15MspeculativeLoading	$715K to $2.10MLoading
Devin Royal	78.0%	+2.3range +0.9 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.3 to +6.6Sufficient evidence	$420KspeculativeLoading	$175K to $645KLoading
John Mobley Jr.	71.7%	+3.2range +1.8 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	+6.0range +5.1 to +7.0Sufficient evidence	$500KspeculativeLoading	$275K to $800KLoading
Amare Bynum	71.3%	+2.3range +1.1 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	+5.6range +5.0 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	$395KspeculativeLoading	$180K to $615KLoading
Christoph Tilly	60.3%	+3.2range +2.1 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.5 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	$415KspeculativeLoading	$255K to $625KLoading
Gabe Cupps	28.3%	-0.4range -1.7 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.4 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	$85KspeculativeLoading	$24K to $185KLoading
Taison Chatman	25.7%	+1.3range -0.2 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.5 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$125KspeculativeLoading	$42K to $215KLoading
Ivan Njegovan	24.8%	+1.9range +0.9 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.6 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	$140KspeculativeLoading	$65K to $220KLoading
Brandon Noel	21.8%	-0.3range -1.3 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.1 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	$72KspeculativeLoading	$24K to $145KLoading
Colin White	17.0%	-1.5range -2.5 to -0.4Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$47KspeculativeLoading	$19K to $105KLoading
Puff Johnson	7.7%	-1.5range -2.1 to -0.7Limited evidence	+0.4range +0.3 to +0.4Limited evidence	$37KspeculativeLoading	$19K to $68KLoading
Mathieu Grujicic	2.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$26Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $44KLoading
Braylen Nash	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$26Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $44KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.55M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Bruce Thornton	90.4%	$1.15M	$715K to $2.10M	31.4%	$1.15M in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Devin Royal	78.0%	$420K	$175K to $645K	12.6%	$420K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
John Mobley Jr.	71.7%	$500K	$275K to $800K	14.2%	$500K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Amare Bynum	71.3%	$395K	$180K to $615K	11.9%	$395K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Christoph Tilly	60.3%	$415K	$255K to $625K	11.9%	$415K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Gabe Cupps	28.3%	$85K	$24K to $185K	2.5%	$85K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Taison Chatman	25.7%	$125K	$42K to $215K	3.7%	$125K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Ivan Njegovan	24.8%	$140K	$65K to $220K	4.2%	$140K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Brandon Noel	21.8%	$72K	$24K to $145K	2.2%	$72K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Colin White	17.0%	$47K	$19K to $105K	1.3%	$47K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Puff Johnson	7.7%	$37K	$19K to $68K	1.1%	$37K in all four	$26K	Limited evidence
Mathieu Grujicic	2.4%	$26K	$15K to $44K	0.8%	$26K in all four	$26K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Braylen Nash	0.5%	$26K	$15K to $44K	0.8%	$26K in all four	$26K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.55M to $4.95M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Ohio State University-Main Campus (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$23,355,035
Men's basketball expenses	$13,158,683
Athletics department expenses	$295,265,883
Athletics department revenue	$295,265,883

Coverage and exclusions

33 of 34 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 34 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$23,355,035	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$13,158,683	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
3 or more days	32

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology