Oakland

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Oakland, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Brody Robinson	90.8%	+1.2range +0.0 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+6.4range +5.6 to +7.1Sufficient evidence	$42KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $125KLoading
Tuburu Naivalurua	81.4%	-0.1range -1.3 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.4 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $73KLoading
Ziare Wells	66.6%	+0.8range -0.2 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +4.1 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$27KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $80KLoading
Isaac Garrett	63.8%	+0.6range -1.3 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+4.3range +3.5 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$24KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $82KLoading
Brett White	59.1%	+1.8range +0.3 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	+4.5range +3.8 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	$35KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $115KLoading
Michael Houge	57.9%	+0.3range -1.0 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	+3.8range +3.3 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $55KLoading
Khoi Thurmon	28.9%	-1.9range -3.2 to -0.5Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $18KLoading
Warren Marshall IV	26.9%	-0.9range -2.2 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.3 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $23KLoading
Nassim Mashhour	20.9%	+0.9range -0.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $32KLoading
Nate Deer	2.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
MJ Yeager	1.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $215K; 80% Range $78K to $575K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $200K to $260K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 11; 2 floor only

The widest scenario range, $96K to $695K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Brody Robinson	90.8%	$42K	$13K to $125K	19.5%	$40K to $51K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tuburu Naivalurua	81.4%	$23K	$3K to $73K	13.1%	$21K to $28K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ziare Wells	66.6%	$27K	$7K to $80K	13.2%	$25K to $32K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaac Garrett	63.8%	$24K	$4K to $82K	12.5%	$22K to $29K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brett White	59.1%	$35K	$11K to $115K	14.9%	$33K to $42K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Michael Houge	57.9%	$18K	$3K to $55K	9.9%	$16K to $21K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Khoi Thurmon	28.9%	$5K	$1K to $18K	2.3%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Warren Marshall IV	26.9%	$6K	$1K to $23K	3.8%	$6K to $8K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nassim Mashhour	20.9%	$10K	$3K to $32K	4.8%	$9K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nate Deer	2.1%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.9%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
MJ Yeager	1.5%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.9%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$215K	$78K to $575K	100%	$200K to $260K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Oakland University (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,854,803	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,854,803
Athletics department expenses	$17,319,517
Athletics department revenue	$17,319,517

Coverage and exclusions

30 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,854,803	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,854,803	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	2
3 or more days	27

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	5

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology