Northern Iowa

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Northern Iowa, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Trey Campbell	85.0%	+3.9range +2.9 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	+8.9range +8.0 to +9.7Sufficient evidence	$135KspeculativeLoading	$57K to $330KLoading
Leon Bond III	83.8%	+2.1range +0.9 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	+7.6range +6.6 to +8.1Sufficient evidence	$76KspeculativeLoading	$28K to $180KLoading
Ben Schwieger	69.4%	+1.9range +0.7 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.3 to +6.8Sufficient evidence	$64KspeculativeLoading	$23K to $155KLoading
Will Hornseth	65.4%	+2.2range +1.1 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+5.9range +5.2 to +6.4Sufficient evidence	$64KspeculativeLoading	$24K to $150KLoading
Max Weisbrod	60.4%	+1.5range +0.4 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.5 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$50KspeculativeLoading	$17K to $125KLoading
Tristan Smith	41.8%	+5.2range +3.9 to +6.2Sufficient evidence	+4.7range +4.2 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	$85KspeculativeLoading	$34K to $220KLoading
Kyle Pock	27.8%	+1.3range +0.4 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +2.0 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$24KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $59KLoading
Ismael Diouf	24.8%	-1.0range -2.0 to +0.0Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.3 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $34KLoading
RJ Taylor	21.3%	+0.8range -0.1 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.4 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $43KLoading
Geon Hutchins	17.3%	-0.9range -2.1 to +0.3Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $28KLoading
Chase Courbat	1.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$5Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $11KLoading
Hunter Jacobson	1.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$5Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $11KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $575K; 80% Range $255K to $1.30M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $555K to $630K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Trey Campbell	85.0%	$135K	$57K to $330K	22.7%	$130K to $150K	$5K	Sufficient evidence
Leon Bond III	83.8%	$76K	$28K to $180K	14.7%	$73K to $83K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ben Schwieger	69.4%	$64K	$23K to $155K	12.1%	$61K to $69K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Will Hornseth	65.4%	$64K	$24K to $150K	12.1%	$62K to $70K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Max Weisbrod	60.4%	$50K	$17K to $125K	9.9%	$48K to $55K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tristan Smith	41.8%	$85K	$34K to $220K	13.7%	$81K to $92K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kyle Pock	27.8%	$24K	$8K to $59K	4.8%	$23K to $27K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ismael Diouf	24.8%	$11K	$3K to $34K	2.1%	$10K to $12K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
RJ Taylor	21.3%	$17K	$6K to $43K	3.4%	$16K to $18K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Geon Hutchins	17.3%	$9K	$3K to $28K	1.8%	$9K to $10K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chase Courbat	1.8%	$5K	$2K to $11K	0.8%	$4K to $5K	$5K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Hunter Jacobson	1.1%	$5K	$2K to $11K	0.8%	$4K to $5K	$5K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$575K	$255K to $1.30M	100%	$555K to $630K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Northern Iowa (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,354,932	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,354,932
Athletics department expenses	$19,617,597
Athletics department revenue	$19,617,597

Coverage and exclusions

33 of 35 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 35 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$3,354,932	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,354,932	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	4
3 or more days	30

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology