North Florida

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for North Florida, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Kamrin Oriol	87.8%	-3.0range -4.1 to -1.9Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.1 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $45KLoading
Kent Jackson	81.9%	-1.7range -2.4 to -0.9Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.5 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $64KLoading
BJ Plummer	65.8%	-2.0range -3.3 to -0.6Sufficient evidence	+2.3range +1.8 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $56KLoading
Mason Lee	62.3%	-1.0range -2.1 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$20KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $84KLoading
Dalton Gayman	60.0%	-2.0range -3.0 to -1.1Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.8 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $45KLoading
Devin Hines	39.1%	-2.8range -3.8 to -1.6Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.0 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $24KLoading
Nestor Dyachok	36.6%	+0.9range -0.2 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.6 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	$51KspeculativeLoading	$12K to $240KLoading
Trey Cady	29.0%	-2.0range -3.0 to -1.0Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $24KLoading
Dante Oliver	28.6%	-0.8range -1.7 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.1 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $45KLoading
Taylor Thompson	5.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $4KLoading
Gabe Jacobs	1.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $4KLoading
Alex Vargo	1.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $4KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $200K; 80% Range $75K to $515K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $195K to $210K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Kamrin Oriol	87.8%	$6K	$1K to $45K	1.5%	$6K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kent Jackson	81.9%	$13K	$1K to $64K	13.0%	$13K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
BJ Plummer	65.8%	$12K	$1K to $56K	9.5%	$11K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mason Lee	62.3%	$20K	$1K to $84K	12.9%	$19K to $21K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dalton Gayman	60.0%	$8K	$1K to $45K	8.4%	$8K to $9K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Devin Hines	39.1%	$5K	$1K to $24K	2.3%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nestor Dyachok	36.6%	$51K	$12K to $240K	21.9%	$49K to $53K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Trey Cady	29.0%	$5K	$1K to $24K	4.3%	$5K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dante Oliver	28.6%	$11K	$2K to $45K	6.7%	$11K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Taylor Thompson	5.9%	$2K	$1K to $4K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Gabe Jacobs	1.9%	$2K	$1K to $4K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Alex Vargo	1.0%	$2K	$1K to $4K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$200K	$75K to $515K	100%	$195K to $210K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of North Florida (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$1,551,133	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$1,551,133
Athletics department expenses	$18,439,060
Athletics department revenue	$18,439,060

Coverage and exclusions

22 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (73%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

8 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$1,551,133	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$1,551,133	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	8
3 or more days	20

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology