Murray St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Murray St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Javon Jackson	64.5%	-0.2range -1.3 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+4.3range +3.7 to +4.8Sufficient evidence	$33KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $96KLoading
Roman Domon	62.7%	+2.3range +1.3 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	+5.3range +4.7 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	$89KspeculativeLoading	$35K to $215KLoading
Fredrick King	59.8%	+3.1range +1.8 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	+5.4range +4.8 to +6.0Sufficient evidence	$105KspeculativeLoading	$43K to $275KLoading
Layne Taylor	57.3%	+2.7range +1.4 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	+5.0range +4.4 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	$90KspeculativeLoading	$36K to $220KLoading
JJ Traynor	55.4%	-1.5range -2.7 to -0.5Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.7 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $64KLoading
Mason Miller	54.9%	+1.2range +0.2 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+4.2range +3.7 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$50KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $125KLoading
KJ Tenner	41.9%	+0.6range -0.6 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.6 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$33KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $86KLoading
Mathis Courbon	37.8%	+1.1range +0.2 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.6 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$36KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $89KLoading
Brayden Shorter	37.1%	+0.4range -0.4 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.3 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$28KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $72KLoading
Dylan Anderson	17.2%	-0.1range -1.1 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.0 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $34KLoading
Brock Vice	11.3%	+1.4range +0.7 to +2.2Limited evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Limited evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $36KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $545K; 80% Range $250K to $1.20M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $535K to $565K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 11

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Javon Jackson	64.5%	$33K	$5K to $96K	7.7%	$33K to $34K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Roman Domon	62.7%	$89K	$35K to $215K	15.2%	$87K to $92K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Fredrick King	59.8%	$105K	$43K to $275K	18.0%	$105K to $110K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Layne Taylor	57.3%	$90K	$36K to $220K	15.4%	$89K to $93K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
JJ Traynor	55.4%	$15K	$3K to $64K	3.5%	$15K to $16K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mason Miller	54.9%	$50K	$18K to $125K	10.3%	$49K to $52K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
KJ Tenner	41.9%	$33K	$8K to $86K	7.0%	$32K to $34K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mathis Courbon	37.8%	$36K	$13K to $89K	7.3%	$36K to $38K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brayden Shorter	37.1%	$28K	$8K to $72K	6.1%	$27K to $29K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dylan Anderson	17.2%	$12K	$4K to $34K	2.7%	$12K to $13K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brock Vice	11.3%	$16K	$6K to $36K	3.0%	$15K to $16K	$5K	Limited evidence
Team Pool	—	$545K	$250K to $1.20M	100%	$535K to $565K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Murray State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$4,312,531
Men's basketball expenses	$2,785,564
Athletics department expenses	$18,970,072
Athletics department revenue	$22,048,782

Coverage and exclusions

30 of 33 games passed lineup acceptance (91%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 33 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$4,312,531	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,785,564	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
3 or more days	30

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology