Montana St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Montana St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Jed Miller	88.8%	+2.5range +1.4 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	+7.2range +6.5 to +7.9Sufficient evidence	$69KspeculativeLoading	$23K to $200KLoading
Patrick McMahon	69.3%	-0.3range -1.7 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+4.4range +3.7 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $63KLoading
Christian King	63.3%	-0.7range -2.3 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.1 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $54KLoading
Chris Hodges	61.8%	+1.7range +0.4 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.1 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	$37KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $110KLoading
Jeremiah Davis	59.2%	+1.9range +0.5 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+4.7range +4.0 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$38KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $115KLoading
Seth Amunrud	40.8%	+0.8range -0.3 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.5 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $55KLoading
Davian Brown	37.5%	+2.1range +1.4 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.7 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	$27KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $77KLoading
Jaden Steppe	35.9%	+0.5range -0.9 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.1 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $50KLoading
Howie Keene	20.2%	-0.3range -1.3 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.1 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $21KLoading
Cavin Holden	15.5%	-0.1range -0.8 to +0.6Limited evidence	+1.0range +0.9 to +1.1Limited evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $18KLoading
Waka Mbatch	7.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Grayson Gaddis	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Calum Rutherfurd	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $275K; 80% Range $100K to $735K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $255K to $285K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jed Miller	88.8%	$69K	$23K to $200K	23.4%	$64K to $71K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Patrick McMahon	69.3%	$17K	$2K to $63K	8.6%	$16K to $18K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Christian King	63.3%	$13K	$2K to $54K	6.7%	$13K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chris Hodges	61.8%	$37K	$11K to $110K	13.3%	$34K to $38K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jeremiah Davis	59.2%	$38K	$11K to $115K	13.5%	$35K to $39K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Seth Amunrud	40.8%	$18K	$5K to $55K	7.5%	$17K to $19K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Davian Brown	37.5%	$27K	$9K to $77K	9.1%	$25K to $28K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaden Steppe	35.9%	$15K	$3K to $50K	6.3%	$14K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Howie Keene	20.2%	$6K	$2K to $21K	2.9%	$6K to $7K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cavin Holden	15.5%	$6K	$2K to $18K	2.6%	$6K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Waka Mbatch	7.8%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Grayson Gaddis	0.1%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Calum Rutherfurd	0.1%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$275K	$100K to $735K	100%	$255K to $285K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Montana State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,385,737
Men's basketball expenses	$2,778,265
Athletics department expenses	$32,910,346
Athletics department revenue	$33,697,790

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 29 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 29 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$2,385,737	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,778,265	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	9
3 or more days	19

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology