Montana

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Montana, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Money Williams	80.5%	-0.3range -1.7 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+5.0range +4.2 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$21KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $81KLoading
Tyler Thompson	75.7%	+2.7range +1.6 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.5 to +6.7Sufficient evidence	$75KspeculativeLoading	$24K to $230KLoading
Te'Jon Sawyer	71.7%	+0.4range -0.7 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.2 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$28KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $90KLoading
Kenyon Aguino	60.3%	+2.3range +0.8 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.2 to +5.5Sufficient evidence	$52KspeculativeLoading	$16K to $160KLoading
Tyler Isaak	55.4%	-1.2range -2.9 to +0.3Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.5 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $49KLoading
Brooklyn Hicks	54.3%	-0.4range -1.9 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.8 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $55KLoading
Grant Kepley	45.4%	-0.7range -2.4 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.2 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $46KLoading
Trae Taylor	17.8%	+0.9range -0.0 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.2 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $33KLoading
Connor Dick	13.5%	-2.0range -3.2 to -0.6Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.9Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $13KLoading
Amari Jedkins	8.2%	-1.5range -2.3 to -0.7Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $10KLoading
Chase Henderson	7.8%	-0.7range -1.4 to +0.2Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $12KLoading
Courtney Anderson	6.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Kadyn Betts	2.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $270K; 80% Range $100K to $715K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $265K to $285K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Money Williams	80.5%	$21K	$2K to $81K	10.9%	$20K to $22K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyler Thompson	75.7%	$75K	$24K to $230K	25.8%	$74K to $80K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Te'Jon Sawyer	71.7%	$28K	$5K to $90K	12.7%	$27K to $30K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kenyon Aguino	60.3%	$52K	$16K to $160K	17.7%	$50K to $54K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyler Isaak	55.4%	$11K	$1K to $49K	5.5%	$10K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brooklyn Hicks	54.3%	$14K	$2K to $55K	7.3%	$14K to $15K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Grant Kepley	45.4%	$12K	$2K to $46K	6.0%	$12K to $13K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Trae Taylor	17.8%	$11K	$3K to $33K	4.2%	$11K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Connor Dick	13.5%	$4K	$1K to $13K	1.5%	$4K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Amari Jedkins	8.2%	$3K	$1K to $10K	1.2%	$3K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chase Henderson	7.8%	$4K	$1K to $12K	1.6%	$4K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Courtney Anderson	6.9%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Kadyn Betts	2.6%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$270K	$100K to $715K	100%	$265K to $285K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, The University of Montana (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,042,961
Men's basketball expenses	$3,498,484
Athletics department expenses	$30,414,535
Athletics department revenue	$30,414,535

Coverage and exclusions

30 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$3,042,961	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,498,484	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	10
3 or more days	17

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology