Missouri St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Missouri St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Kobi Williams	85.5%	-0.5range -1.6 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+5.5range +4.8 to +6.2Sufficient evidence	$20KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $78KLoading
Keith Palek III	81.9%	-0.1range -1.2 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+5.5range +4.9 to +6.2Sufficient evidence	$25KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $89KLoading
Trey Williams Jr	75.3%	-1.0range -2.0 to +0.0Sufficient evidence	+4.7range +4.0 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $62KLoading
Zaxton King	65.1%	-0.2range -1.5 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	+4.4range +3.7 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $67KLoading
Michael Osei-Bonsu	64.8%	+4.3range +2.8 to +5.8Sufficient evidence	+6.3range +5.7 to +6.9Sufficient evidence	$93KspeculativeLoading	$26K to $340KLoading
Antwan Burnett	37.3%	+1.0range +0.1 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.6 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$19KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $61KLoading
Darrion Sutton	31.5%	-0.8range -2.1 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.7 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $31KLoading
Melakih Cunningham	19.8%	+0.5range -0.7 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $30KLoading
Cameron Boone	16.5%	-1.1range -2.5 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $18KLoading
Logan Epes	11.6%	-0.4range -1.0 to +0.3Limited evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +0.9Limited evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $16KLoading
Tyrique Brooks	10.6%	-1.0range -1.9 to -0.2Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $13KLoading
Ryder Cheesman	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $260K; 80% Range $94K to $755K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $245K to $290K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 1 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Kobi Williams	85.5%	$20K	$2K to $78K	10.8%	$19K to $22K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Keith Palek III	81.9%	$25K	$3K to $89K	12.8%	$24K to $28K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Trey Williams Jr	75.3%	$14K	$2K to $62K	8.4%	$14K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zaxton King	65.1%	$18K	$2K to $67K	9.6%	$17K to $20K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Michael Osei-Bonsu	64.8%	$93K	$26K to $340K	33.6%	$90K to $105K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Antwan Burnett	37.3%	$19K	$5K to $61K	8.0%	$19K to $22K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Darrion Sutton	31.5%	$8K	$1K to $31K	4.2%	$8K to $9K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Melakih Cunningham	19.8%	$9K	$2K to $30K	4.1%	$9K to $10K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cameron Boone	16.5%	$5K	$1K to $18K	2.3%	$5K to $6K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Logan Epes	11.6%	$5K	$1K to $16K	2.3%	$5K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyrique Brooks	10.6%	$4K	$1K to $13K	1.8%	$4K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ryder Cheesman	0.1%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$260K	$94K to $755K	100%	$245K to $290K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Missouri State University-Springfield (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,751,968	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,751,968
Athletics department expenses	$28,059,311
Athletics department revenue	$28,059,311

Coverage and exclusions

30 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$3,751,968	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,751,968	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	7
3 or more days	22

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology