Michigan

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Michigan, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Yaxel Lendeborg	75.0%	+10.8range +8.8 to +12.1Sufficient evidence	+10.5range +9.2 to +11.4Sufficient evidence	$940KspeculativeLoading	$600K to $1.65MLoading
Elliot Cadeau	68.4%	+5.9range +4.5 to +7.4Sufficient evidence	+6.7range +5.9 to +7.6Sufficient evidence	$465KspeculativeLoading	$295K to $680KLoading
Morez Johnson Jr.	63.0%	+6.3range +4.8 to +7.7Sufficient evidence	+6.3range +5.4 to +7.0Sufficient evidence	$450KspeculativeLoading	$295K to $655KLoading
Aday Mara	60.2%	+6.9range +5.6 to +8.0Sufficient evidence	+6.2range +5.6 to +6.8Sufficient evidence	$470KspeculativeLoading	$310K to $700KLoading
Trey McKenney	53.9%	+6.1range +4.4 to +7.5Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.4 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$370KspeculativeLoading	$230K to $550KLoading
Roddy Gayle Jr.	50.7%	+2.0range +0.5 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.8 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$170KspeculativeLoading	$51K to $310KLoading
Nimari Burnett	50.1%	+3.2range +1.4 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.1 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$215KspeculativeLoading	$84K to $355KLoading
Will Tschetter	33.5%	+3.0range +1.3 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	+2.3range +1.9 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	$150KspeculativeLoading	$56K to $250KLoading
L.J. Cason	32.2%	+3.3range +2.2 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +2.0 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$150KspeculativeLoading	$70K to $235KLoading
Oscar Goodman	5.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Malick Kordel	3.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Winters Grady	2.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Charlie May	1.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Howard Eisley Jr.	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.60M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 5 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Yaxel Lendeborg	75.0%	$940K	$600K to $1.65M	25.4%	$940K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Elliot Cadeau	68.4%	$465K	$295K to $680K	13.2%	$465K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Morez Johnson Jr.	63.0%	$450K	$295K to $655K	12.7%	$450K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Aday Mara	60.2%	$470K	$310K to $700K	13.0%	$470K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Trey McKenney	53.9%	$370K	$230K to $550K	10.5%	$370K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Roddy Gayle Jr.	50.7%	$170K	$51K to $310K	4.9%	$170K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nimari Burnett	50.1%	$215K	$84K to $355K	6.2%	$215K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Will Tschetter	33.5%	$150K	$56K to $250K	4.3%	$150K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
L.J. Cason	32.2%	$150K	$70K to $235K	4.4%	$150K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Oscar Goodman	5.0%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Malick Kordel	3.5%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Winters Grady	2.7%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Charlie May	1.1%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Howard Eisley Jr.	0.5%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.60M to $4.95M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Michigan-Ann Arbor (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$21,209,886
Men's basketball expenses	$14,358,515
Athletics department expenses	$222,088,909
Athletics department revenue	$236,376,759

Coverage and exclusions

39 of 40 games passed lineup acceptance (98%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 40 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$21,209,886	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$14,358,515	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	4
2 days	3
3 or more days	32

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology