Louisiana Tech

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Louisiana Tech, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
AJ Bates	84.5%	+1.4range +0.3 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+6.4range +5.7 to +6.9Sufficient evidence	$54KspeculativeLoading	$17K to $160KLoading
DJ Dudley	75.8%	-0.5range -1.6 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+4.9range +4.2 to +5.5Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $67KLoading
Avery Thomas II	61.2%	+0.7range -0.4 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+4.5range +3.9 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$30KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $95KLoading
Kaden Cooper	53.2%	+1.7range +0.0 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	+4.3range +3.7 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	$39KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $125KLoading
Jaylen Fenner	50.5%	+0.3range -1.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.0 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$20KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $66KLoading
Scooter Williams Jr.	43.4%	+0.8range -0.4 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.9 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $70KLoading
Will Allen	38.1%	+0.9range -0.2 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.6 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$22KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $68KLoading
Melian Martinez	37.0%	+0.8range -0.4 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.5 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$20KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $62KLoading
Sir Issac Herron	24.7%	-1.5range -2.6 to -0.6Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $20KLoading
Kylan Howze	17.1%	-0.4range -1.1 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.0 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $20KLoading
William Jeffress	8.8%	-1.2range -2.1 to -0.5Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $10KLoading
Jermaurhiyun Anderson	4.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Keegan Rowell	1.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Lachlan Thompson	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $275K; 80% Range $100K to $725K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $245K to $285K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
AJ Bates	84.5%	$54K	$17K to $160K	19.0%	$49K to $56K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
DJ Dudley	75.8%	$17K	$2K to $67K	9.4%	$16K to $18K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Avery Thomas II	61.2%	$30K	$8K to $95K	11.9%	$27K to $31K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kaden Cooper	53.2%	$39K	$11K to $125K	13.3%	$35K to $41K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaylen Fenner	50.5%	$20K	$4K to $66K	8.9%	$18K to $21K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Scooter Williams Jr.	43.4%	$23K	$6K to $70K	8.9%	$20K to $23K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Will Allen	38.1%	$22K	$6K to $68K	8.2%	$20K to $23K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Melian Martinez	37.0%	$20K	$5K to $62K	7.7%	$18K to $20K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sir Issac Herron	24.7%	$5K	$1K to $20K	2.2%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kylan Howze	17.1%	$6K	$2K to $20K	2.7%	$5K to $6K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
William Jeffress	8.8%	$3K	$1K to $10K	1.3%	$3K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jermaurhiyun Anderson	4.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Keegan Rowell	1.4%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Lachlan Thompson	0.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$275K	$100K to $725K	100%	$245K to $285K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Louisiana Tech University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,572,343	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,572,343
Athletics department expenses	$33,952,161
Athletics department revenue	$33,952,161

Coverage and exclusions

31 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,572,343	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,572,343	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	5
3 or more days	23

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology