Longwood

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Longwood, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Jacoi Hutchinson	70.9%	+1.4range +0.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +4.0 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$42KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $135KLoading
Elijah Tucker	65.9%	-0.2range -1.2 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.1 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	$20KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $68KLoading
Emanuel Richards	64.0%	-2.7range -4.6 to -1.0Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +1.9 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $33KLoading
Johan Nziemi	61.3%	+1.3range +0.2 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+4.0range +3.5 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	$37KspeculativeLoading	$12K to $120KLoading
Alphonzo Billups III	55.9%	+0.2range -1.3 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.7 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$20KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $71KLoading
Redd Thompson Jr.	52.2%	+2.0range +0.6 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.1 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$39KspeculativeLoading	$12K to $130KLoading
Jaylen Benard	47.5%	-1.3range -2.4 to -0.5Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.0 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $33KLoading
Elijah Jones	34.6%	-0.8range -1.8 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.6 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $28KLoading
Elijah Kelly	25.7%	+0.7range -0.4 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.4 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $41KLoading
Jaylin Payne	14.9%	-0.4range -1.0 to +0.2Limited evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +0.9Limited evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $16KLoading
KJ McClurg	3.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Isaiah Kalala	2.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Jerome Williams	1.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $235K; 80% Range $86K to $620K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $215K to $305K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

The widest scenario range, $115K to $810K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jacoi Hutchinson	70.9%	$42K	$13K to $135K	17.3%	$38K to $55K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Elijah Tucker	65.9%	$20K	$3K to $68K	11.0%	$18K to $26K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Emanuel Richards	64.0%	$5K	$1K to $33K	2.4%	$5K to $7K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Johan Nziemi	61.3%	$37K	$12K to $120K	15.3%	$34K to $49K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Alphonzo Billups III	55.9%	$20K	$3K to $71K	10.3%	$19K to $27K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Redd Thompson Jr.	52.2%	$39K	$12K to $130K	15.2%	$35K to $50K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaylen Benard	47.5%	$7K	$1K to $33K	4.3%	$6K to $9K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Elijah Jones	34.6%	$7K	$1K to $28K	4.4%	$7K to $9K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Elijah Kelly	25.7%	$13K	$3K to $41K	5.8%	$12K to $17K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaylin Payne	14.9%	$5K	$1K to $16K	2.7%	$5K to $7K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
KJ McClurg	3.4%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaiah Kalala	2.3%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jerome Williams	1.5%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$235K	$86K to $620K	100%	$215K to $305K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Longwood University (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$4,627,089
Men's basketball expenses	$4,053,871
Athletics department expenses	$19,935,846
Athletics department revenue	$20,058,176

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 29 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 29 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$4,627,089	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$4,053,871	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	4
3 or more days	22

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology