Hawaii

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Hawaii, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Hunter Erickson	77.5%	+2.4range +1.0 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	+6.2range +5.3 to +7.0Sufficient evidence	$58KspeculativeLoading	$20K to $170KLoading
Dre Bullock	73.1%	+1.6range +0.5 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+5.4range +4.7 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	$42KspeculativeLoading	$12K to $120KLoading
Harry Rouhliadeff	66.7%	+1.4range +0.2 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.1 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	$35KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $105KLoading
Isaac Finlinson	63.2%	+0.7range -0.2 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+4.2range +3.7 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$26KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $81KLoading
Gytis Nemeiksa	57.2%	+1.0range -0.1 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.4 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	$28KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $82KLoading
Isaiah Kerr	54.8%	+2.4range +1.2 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	+4.3range +3.8 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$41KspeculativeLoading	$14K to $120KLoading
Isaac Johnson	54.7%	+3.7range +2.4 to +4.8Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.2 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$59KspeculativeLoading	$20K to $190KLoading
Aaron Hunkin-Claytor	23.5%	+1.0range -0.3 to +2.1Limited evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.7Limited evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $37KLoading
Yacine Toumi	17.7%	-0.3range -1.0 to +0.2Limited evidence	+1.0range +0.9 to +1.1Limited evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $22KLoading
AJ Economou	6.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$3Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $8KLoading
Hunter Carter	2.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$3Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $8KLoading
Jalen Myers	2.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$3Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $8KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $340K; 80% Range $125K to $905K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $275K to $370K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Hunter Erickson	77.5%	$58K	$20K to $170K	17.0%	$47K to $64K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dre Bullock	73.1%	$42K	$12K to $120K	13.4%	$34K to $47K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Harry Rouhliadeff	66.7%	$35K	$10K to $105K	11.7%	$28K to $38K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaac Finlinson	63.2%	$26K	$6K to $81K	9.2%	$21K to $28K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Gytis Nemeiksa	57.2%	$28K	$8K to $82K	9.7%	$23K to $31K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaiah Kerr	54.8%	$41K	$14K to $120K	12.1%	$34K to $45K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaac Johnson	54.7%	$59K	$20K to $190K	16.4%	$48K to $65K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aaron Hunkin-Claytor	23.5%	$13K	$4K to $37K	4.3%	$10K to $14K	$3K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Yacine Toumi	17.7%	$7K	$2K to $22K	2.3%	$5K to $7K	$3K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
AJ Economou	6.4%	$3K	$1K to $8K	0.8%	$2K to $3K	$3K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Hunter Carter	2.9%	$3K	$1K to $8K	0.8%	$2K to $3K	$3K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jalen Myers	2.3%	$3K	$1K to $8K	0.8%	$2K to $3K	$3K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$340K	$125K to $905K	100%	$275K to $370K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Hawaii at Manoa (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,239,771
Men's basketball expenses	$3,199,708
Athletics department expenses	$53,793,049
Athletics department revenue	$53,793,049

Coverage and exclusions

16 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (52%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

15 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$2,239,771	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,199,708	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	11
3 or more days	17

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	4
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology