Ga Southern

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Ga Southern, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Tavarus Webb	80.6%	+0.5range -0.8 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+6.8range +5.8 to +7.5Sufficient evidence	$38KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $115KLoading
Alden Applewhite	78.0%	+1.3range +0.1 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+7.1range +6.2 to +7.9Sufficient evidence	$55KspeculativeLoading	$17K to $165KLoading
Tyren Moore	73.1%	+0.1range -1.0 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+6.0range +5.2 to +6.6Sufficient evidence	$30KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $89KLoading
Nakavieon White	52.3%	-0.0range -1.0 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	+4.3range +3.8 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	$22KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $71KLoading
Khayri Dunn	41.2%	-1.5range -2.6 to -0.4Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.3 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $34KLoading
Shainen Carter	40.1%	-0.2range -1.8 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.6 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $48KLoading
Andres Burney	36.6%	+1.4range +0.7 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +3.2 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$32KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $105KLoading
Jefferson Koulibaly	36.6%	-0.6range -2.0 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.3 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $41KLoading
Tsvet Sotirov	26.2%	+1.4range +0.3 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.2 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $79KLoading
Dwayne Williams Jr.	25.3%	-2.0range -3.3 to -0.7Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $21KLoading
Jayden Williams	9.2%	-0.3range -1.0 to +0.5Limited evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +0.8Limited evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $15KLoading
Sean Van Dorn Jr.	0.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Cade Lomas	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $285K; 80% Range $105K to $735K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $240K to $295K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Tavarus Webb	80.6%	$38K	$7K to $115K	15.2%	$33K to $40K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Alden Applewhite	78.0%	$55K	$17K to $165K	18.6%	$48K to $59K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyren Moore	73.1%	$30K	$5K to $89K	12.9%	$26K to $31K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nakavieon White	52.3%	$22K	$4K to $71K	9.5%	$19K to $23K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Khayri Dunn	41.2%	$8K	$1K to $34K	3.9%	$7K to $8K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Shainen Carter	40.1%	$14K	$2K to $48K	6.4%	$12K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Andres Burney	36.6%	$32K	$10K to $105K	10.1%	$27K to $33K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jefferson Koulibaly	36.6%	$11K	$2K to $41K	5.4%	$10K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tsvet Sotirov	26.2%	$23K	$7K to $79K	7.1%	$19K to $24K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dwayne Williams Jr.	25.3%	$5K	$1K to $21K	2.1%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jayden Williams	9.2%	$5K	$1K to $15K	2.1%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sean Van Dorn Jr.	0.8%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Cade Lomas	0.1%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$285K	$105K to $735K	100%	$240K to $295K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Georgia Southern University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,557,162	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,557,162
Athletics department expenses	$38,133,784
Athletics department revenue	$38,133,784

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 35 games passed lineup acceptance (83%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

6 of 35 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,557,162	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,557,162	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	7
2 days	6
3 or more days	21

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.7
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	10
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology