East Carolina

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for East Carolina, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Jordan Riley	92.4%	+0.3range -0.8 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+4.7range +4.1 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$230KspeculativeLoading	$71K to $695KLoading
Giovanni Emejuru	81.6%	-1.0range -2.1 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.2 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	$88KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $285KLoading
Corey Caulker	75.7%	-0.7range -1.6 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.2 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$100KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $295KLoading
Isaiah Mbeng	55.0%	-2.3range -3.9 to -0.8Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.7 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$26KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $130KLoading
Demitri Gardner	44.3%	-0.6range -1.6 to +0.3Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.9 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$61KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $195KLoading
Reid Cason	39.0%	-0.2range -1.2 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.8 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	$68KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $215KLoading
Tybo Bailey	34.8%	-1.2range -2.5 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.4 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$33KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $115KLoading
Eli DeLaurier	28.7%	-1.5range -2.7 to -0.1Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.1 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$26KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $95KLoading
Luke Davis	25.0%	+0.3range -0.8 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$64KspeculativeLoading	$17K to $225KLoading
Patrick D'Arcy	9.9%	-1.0range -1.4 to -0.5Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $42KLoading
Vito Perkovic	9.0%	-0.2range -0.9 to +0.7Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Limited evidence	$24KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $74KLoading
Jayshayne Woodard	4.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$7Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$3K to $16KLoading
Ladontae Felton	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$7Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$3K to $16KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $910K; 80% Range $395K to $2.05M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $710K to $1.00M; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jordan Riley	92.4%	$230K	$71K to $695K	22.8%	$180K to $255K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Giovanni Emejuru	81.6%	$88K	$6K to $285K	13.4%	$70K to $99K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Corey Caulker	75.7%	$100K	$8K to $295K	13.7%	$81K to $115K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaiah Mbeng	55.0%	$26K	$4K to $130K	4.2%	$20K to $29K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Demitri Gardner	44.3%	$61K	$7K to $195K	8.2%	$49K to $69K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Reid Cason	39.0%	$68K	$11K to $215K	8.1%	$53K to $76K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tybo Bailey	34.8%	$33K	$5K to $115K	5.1%	$27K to $38K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Eli DeLaurier	28.7%	$26K	$4K to $95K	4.1%	$21K to $29K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Luke Davis	25.0%	$64K	$17K to $225K	6.3%	$49K to $70K	$7K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Patrick D'Arcy	9.9%	$15K	$5K to $42K	2.1%	$12K to $17K	$7K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Vito Perkovic	9.0%	$24K	$8K to $74K	2.6%	$19K to $26K	$7K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jayshayne Woodard	4.0%	$7K	$3K to $16K	0.8%	$5K to $7K	$7K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Ladontae Felton	0.5%	$7K	$3K to $16K	0.8%	$5K to $7K	$7K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$910K	$395K to $2.05M	100%	$710K to $1.00M	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, East Carolina University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$4,299,003
Men's basketball expenses	$4,288,223
Athletics department expenses	$64,764,468
Athletics department revenue	$68,011,262

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (93%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$4,299,003	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$4,288,223	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	2
3 or more days	27

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology