Cincinnati

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Cincinnati, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Day Day Thomas	76.1%	+3.6range +2.3 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	+6.3range +5.5 to +6.8Sufficient evidence	$585KspeculativeLoading	$385K to $905KLoading
Baba Miller	73.9%	+4.9range +3.8 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	+6.7range +6.2 to +7.3Sufficient evidence	$780KspeculativeLoading	$505K to $1.35MLoading
Moustapha Thiam	64.9%	+3.3range +2.2 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	+5.3range +4.7 to +5.8Sufficient evidence	$500KspeculativeLoading	$305K to $795KLoading
Jalen Celestine	56.7%	+3.7range +2.4 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.2 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$465KspeculativeLoading	$300K to $745KLoading
Jizzle James	51.7%	+0.8range -0.3 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +3.0 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$220KspeculativeLoading	$54K to $380KLoading
Sencire Harris	38.4%	+2.0range +0.8 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.5 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$225KspeculativeLoading	$105K to $365KLoading
Keyshuan Tillery	30.5%	+0.5range -0.7 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.7 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$130KspeculativeLoading	$37K to $230KLoading
Kerr Kriisa	30.0%	+2.0range +0.9 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.9 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$185KspeculativeLoading	$93K to $290KLoading
Shon Abaev	28.9%	+1.0range -0.4 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.6 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$135KspeculativeLoading	$43K to $240KLoading
Tyler McKinley	23.2%	-0.4range -1.6 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.1 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$79KspeculativeLoading	$24K to $155KLoading
Halvine Dzellat	15.4%	+0.4range -0.9 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$73KspeculativeLoading	$29K to $125KLoading
Jordi Rodriguez	9.5%	+0.4range -0.2 to +1.1Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence	$55KspeculativeLoading	$27K to $91KLoading
Grant Darbyshire	0.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$26Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.55M; 80% Range $2.50M to $5.00M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.55M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 1 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Day Day Thomas	76.1%	$585K	$385K to $905K	16.2%	$585K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Baba Miller	73.9%	$780K	$505K to $1.35M	21.3%	$780K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Moustapha Thiam	64.9%	$500K	$305K to $795K	13.9%	$500K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Jalen Celestine	56.7%	$465K	$300K to $745K	12.7%	$465K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Jizzle James	51.7%	$220K	$54K to $380K	6.7%	$220K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sencire Harris	38.4%	$225K	$105K to $365K	6.7%	$225K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Keyshuan Tillery	30.5%	$130K	$37K to $230K	3.9%	$130K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kerr Kriisa	30.0%	$185K	$93K to $290K	5.4%	$185K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Shon Abaev	28.9%	$135K	$43K to $240K	4.1%	$135K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Tyler McKinley	23.2%	$79K	$24K to $155K	2.4%	$79K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Halvine Dzellat	15.4%	$73K	$29K to $125K	2.2%	$73K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Jordi Rodriguez	9.5%	$55K	$27K to $91K	1.6%	$55K in all four	$26K	Limited evidence
Grant Darbyshire	0.8%	$26K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$26K in all four	$26K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.55M	$2.50M to $5.00M	100%	$3.55M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Cincinnati-Main Campus (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$12,321,038	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$12,321,038
Athletics department expenses	$119,327,103
Athletics department revenue	$119,327,103

Coverage and exclusions

31 of 33 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 33 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$12,321,038	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$12,321,038	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	1
3 or more days	30

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology