Bradley

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Bradley, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Alex Huibregtse	76.5%	+1.6range -0.3 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	+6.5range +5.4 to +7.5Sufficient evidence	$86KspeculativeLoading	$24K to $215KLoading
Jaquan Johnson	73.9%	+3.2range +2.1 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	+7.1range +6.4 to +7.8Sufficient evidence	$140KspeculativeLoading	$53K to $350KLoading
AJ Smith	63.2%	+1.9range +0.7 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+5.6range +4.9 to +6.2Sufficient evidence	$81KspeculativeLoading	$30K to $205KLoading
Ahmet Jonovic	61.7%	+1.7range +0.4 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+5.4range +4.6 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	$75KspeculativeLoading	$25K to $195KLoading
Timoty van der Knaap	56.0%	-1.1range -3.1 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +2.7 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	$19KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $77KLoading
Montana Wheeler	53.4%	+0.4range -1.0 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.4 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$39KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $110KLoading
Corey Thomas	44.7%	+1.8range +0.6 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.4 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$55KspeculativeLoading	$19K to $135KLoading
Demarion Burch	41.5%	-1.3range -2.5 to -0.0Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.2 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $56KLoading
Kai Yu	17.3%	-0.2range -1.1 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.1 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $35KLoading
Dietrich Richardson	8.2%	-3.1range -4.2 to -2.0Limited evidence	+0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $15KLoading
Matthew Zobrist	2.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$4Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $11KLoading
Gus Rugaard	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$4Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $11KLoading
Handy Toussaint III	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$4Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $11KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $590K; 80% Range $255K to $1.30M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $565K to $675K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

The widest scenario range, $295K to $1.50M, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Alex Huibregtse	76.5%	$86K	$24K to $215K	15.3%	$82K to $98K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaquan Johnson	73.9%	$140K	$53K to $350K	21.7%	$130K to $155K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
AJ Smith	63.2%	$81K	$30K to $205K	13.8%	$77K to $92K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ahmet Jonovic	61.7%	$75K	$25K to $195K	13.1%	$72K to $86K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Timoty van der Knaap	56.0%	$19K	$3K to $77K	4.2%	$19K to $22K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Montana Wheeler	53.4%	$39K	$7K to $110K	8.2%	$38K to $45K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Corey Thomas	44.7%	$55K	$19K to $135K	9.5%	$53K to $63K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Demarion Burch	41.5%	$15K	$3K to $56K	3.2%	$14K to $17K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kai Yu	17.3%	$13K	$4K to $35K	2.6%	$12K to $15K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dietrich Richardson	8.2%	$6K	$2K to $15K	1.0%	$6K to $7K	$4K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matthew Zobrist	2.9%	$4K	$2K to $11K	0.8%	$4K to $5K	$4K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Gus Rugaard	0.4%	$4K	$2K to $11K	0.8%	$4K to $5K	$4K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Handy Toussaint III	0.3%	$4K	$2K to $11K	0.8%	$4K to $5K	$4K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$590K	$255K to $1.30M	100%	$565K to $675K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Bradley University (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,870,120	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,870,120
Athletics department expenses	$20,541,032
Athletics department revenue	$20,541,032

Coverage and exclusions

31 of 33 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 33 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$3,870,120	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,870,120	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	3
3 or more days	29

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology