Arkansas

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Arkansas, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Darius Acuff Jr.	84.8%	+3.6range +1.9 to +4.8Sufficient evidence	+8.3range +7.0 to +9.2Sufficient evidence	$555KspeculativeLoading	$315K to $870KLoading
Trevon Brazile	76.1%	+4.4range +3.0 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	+7.9range +7.0 to +8.7Sufficient evidence	$605KspeculativeLoading	$390K to $940KLoading
Meleek Thomas	75.5%	+5.0range +3.4 to +6.3Sufficient evidence	+8.2range +7.2 to +9.2Sufficient evidence	$700KspeculativeLoading	$450K to $1.15MLoading
Billy Richmond III	68.2%	+2.6range +1.2 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.3 to +6.9Sufficient evidence	$375KspeculativeLoading	$170K to $600KLoading
D.J. Wagner	54.7%	+1.1range -0.4 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+4.3range +3.6 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	$210KspeculativeLoading	$50K to $370KLoading
Malique Ewin	52.3%	+4.2range +3.0 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	+5.3range +4.8 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	$435KspeculativeLoading	$270K to $715KLoading
Nick Pringle	44.3%	+2.7range +0.5 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	+4.0range +3.1 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$250KspeculativeLoading	$110K to $400KLoading
Karter Knox	32.0%	+2.9range +1.6 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.5 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$210KspeculativeLoading	$115K to $320KLoading
Isaiah Sealy	8.6%	+1.3range +0.6 to +2.3Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.7Limited evidence	$58KspeculativeLoading	$32K to $91KLoading
Jaden Karuletwa	1.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$16K to $43KLoading
Elmir Dzafic	1.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$16K to $43KLoading
Ayden Kelley	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$16K to $43KLoading
Amere Brown	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$16K to $43KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.55M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Darius Acuff Jr.	84.8%	$555K	$315K to $870K	15.7%	$555K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Trevon Brazile	76.1%	$605K	$390K to $940K	16.4%	$605K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Meleek Thomas	75.5%	$700K	$450K to $1.15M	18.9%	$700K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Billy Richmond III	68.2%	$375K	$170K to $600K	11.1%	$375K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
D.J. Wagner	54.7%	$210K	$50K to $370K	6.2%	$210K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Malique Ewin	52.3%	$435K	$270K to $715K	11.8%	$435K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Nick Pringle	44.3%	$250K	$110K to $400K	7.3%	$250K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Karter Knox	32.0%	$210K	$115K to $320K	6.0%	$210K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Isaiah Sealy	8.6%	$58K	$32K to $91K	1.7%	$58K in all four	$27K	Limited evidence
Jaden Karuletwa	1.4%	$27K	$16K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Elmir Dzafic	1.0%	$27K	$16K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Ayden Kelley	0.6%	$27K	$16K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Amere Brown	0.4%	$27K	$16K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.55M to $4.95M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Arkansas (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$25,392,395
Men's basketball expenses	$21,254,027
Athletics department expenses	$188,988,863
Athletics department revenue	$195,879,594

Coverage and exclusions

36 of 37 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 37 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$25,392,395	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$21,254,027	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	1
3 or more days	33

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.6
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology