Abilene Chr

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Abilene Chr, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Rich Smith	77.5%	+1.3range +0.1 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+4.7range +4.2 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$43KspeculativeLoading	$12K to $135KLoading
Bradyn Hubbard	72.9%	+1.9range +0.6 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+4.7range +4.2 to +5.2Sufficient evidence	$49KspeculativeLoading	$15K to $155KLoading
Cbo Newton	67.6%	-0.2range -1.5 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.1 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $66KLoading
Joseph Venzant	64.5%	-0.8range -2.2 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.8 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $54KLoading
Yaniel Rivera	61.4%	+0.6range -0.6 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.2 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$26KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $81KLoading
Cade Hornecker	42.6%	+1.8range +0.5 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.6 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$29KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $85KLoading
Zy Wright	42.3%	+1.0range -0.2 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.3 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$21KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $65KLoading
Ma'Shy Hill	24.6%	-0.0range -1.5 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $29KLoading
Christian Alston	20.8%	+0.1range -0.7 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.1 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $25KLoading
Joseph Scott	18.5%	-3.1range -4.3 to -1.9Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.9Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $12KLoading
Isaac Dye	4.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Tylan Lewis	3.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $250K; 80% Range $91K to $665K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $245K to $255K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Rich Smith	77.5%	$43K	$12K to $135K	16.7%	$41K to $44K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bradyn Hubbard	72.9%	$49K	$15K to $155K	18.6%	$48K to $50K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cbo Newton	67.6%	$18K	$3K to $66K	9.8%	$18K to $19K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Joseph Venzant	64.5%	$14K	$2K to $54K	7.6%	$13K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Yaniel Rivera	61.4%	$26K	$6K to $81K	11.7%	$25K to $27K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cade Hornecker	42.6%	$29K	$9K to $85K	10.8%	$28K to $29K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zy Wright	42.3%	$21K	$6K to $65K	8.8%	$21K to $22K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ma'Shy Hill	24.6%	$9K	$2K to $29K	4.3%	$8K to $9K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Christian Alston	20.8%	$8K	$2K to $25K	4.0%	$8K to $9K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Joseph Scott	18.5%	$3K	$1K to $12K	1.2%	$3K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaac Dye	4.1%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Tylan Lewis	3.3%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$250K	$91K to $665K	100%	$245K to $255K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Abilene Christian University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,946,756
Men's basketball expenses	$2,430,158
Athletics department expenses	$26,476,731
Athletics department revenue	$26,476,731

Coverage and exclusions

21 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (70%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

9 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$2,946,756	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,430,158	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	9
3 or more days	18

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	3
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology