Matija Belic
Wyoming · 2025–26 · 12 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
206:07 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 12
- Minutes per game
- 17:11
- Points per game
- 5.1
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 4.7 / 0.8
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 5.1 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 3.3 |
| Per 40 minutes | 11.8 | 10.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 7.8 |
| Season totals | 61 | 56 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 40 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 23–50 | 46.0%† | 4.2 | 9.7 |
| 2P | 19–32 | 59.4%† | 2.7 | 6.2 |
| 3P | 4–18 | 22.2%† | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| FT | 11–22 | 50.0%† | 1.8 | 4.3 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.0%† | 51.1%† | 36.0%† | 44.0%† | 0.42 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25); the field-goal floor applies to the derived rates above. Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Wyoming · Mid and high major · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $30K
- 80% range $11K to $76K
- Median share of team pool
- 3.9%
- team pool $835K, 80% range $365K to $1.90M
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $26K to $32K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $6K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 19.2%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Wyoming: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Wyoming | $30Kspeculative | $11K to $76K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | +1.0 | +0.1 to +1.9 | Sufficient evidence | -1.2 | +2.2 | +1.3range +1.1 to +1.4 | 759 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Wyoming | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -3.4 | -4.5 to -2.2 | Sufficient evidence | -1.4 | -2.0 | +0.9range +0.5 to +1.2 | 1,111 | Season detail | |
| 2024 | UC Santa Barbara | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -1.4 | -2.4 to -0.3 | Sufficient evidence | -0.4 | -1.1 | +1.1range +0.8 to +1.4 | 1,288 | Season detail | |
| 2023 | UC Santa Barbara | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -1.5 | -2.3 to -0.7 | Limited evidence | +0.2 | -1.7 | +0.3range +0.2 to +0.4 | 324 | Limited evidence: 300 to 599 on-court possessions. Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 18:35 | 17:11 | 8:43–24:47 | |
| Points | 4.8 | 5.1 | 0.0–13.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 42.4% | 47.7% | 0.0%–116.7% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | Air Force | W 68–56 | 16:15 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-20 | Grand Canyon | L 70–82 | 23:40 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 28.6% |
| 2025-12-15 | South Dakota St. | W 87–72 | 24:47 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 116.7% |
| 2025-12-09 | South Dakota | W 106–79 | 19:28 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 66.7% |
| 2025-12-06 | Dartmouth | W 93–80 | 8:45 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-30 | Texas Tech | L 72–76 | 17:04 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 83.3% |
| 2025-11-26 | Denver | W 101–59 | 15:50 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 83.3% |
| 2025-11-23 | Norfolk St. | W 75–67 | 8:43 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 37.5% |
| 2025-11-19 | Sam Houston | L 70–78 | 20:45 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 33.3% |
| 2025-11-15 | Portland | W 93–56 | 16:19 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 40.0% |
| 2025-11-11 | Austin Peay | W 79–65 | 16:01 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 33.3% |
| 2025-11-08 | Cal St. Fullerton | W 92–82 | 18:30 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-4 | 50.0% |