Shay Johnson Jr.
Long Beach St. · 2025–26 · 30 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
477:40 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 30
- Minutes per game
- 15:55
- Points per game
- 2.2
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 1.9 / 0.7
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Per 40 minutes | 5.6 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 6.4 |
| Season totals | 67 | 56 | 22 | 10 | 21 | 20 | 76 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 31–45 | 68.9%† | 1.5 | 3.8 |
| 2P | 31–44 | 70.5%† | 1.5 | 3.7 |
| 3P | 0–1 | 0.0%† | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| FT | 5–12 | 41.7%† | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68.9%† | 66.6%† | 2.2%† | 26.7%† | 1.10 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25); the field-goal floor applies to the derived rates above. Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Long Beach St · Low and other · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $11K
- 80% range $2K to $42K
- Median share of team pool
- 6.2%
- team pool $245K, 80% range $92K to $675K
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $11K in all four
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $2K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 37.8%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Long Beach St: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Long Beach St | $11Kspeculative | $2K to $42K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | -0.8 | -1.9 to +0.2 | Sufficient evidence | -0.5 | -0.4 | +2.0range +1.8 to +2.3 | 1,458 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 15:14 | 15:55 | 3:22–27:18 | |
| Points | 0.8 | 2.2 | 0.0–9.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 40.0% | 68.9% | 0.0%–100.0% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Hawaii | W 84–75 | 21:58 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | — |
| 2026-03-05 | UC Davis | L 70–76 | 15:57 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-28 | CSU Bakersfield | W 88–87 | 3:22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | Cal Poly | L 92–102 | 18:30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-21 | CSUN | L 76–78 | 16:23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2026-02-19 | UC Irvine | L 58–69 | 10:23 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-14 | UC Davis | L 54–71 | 13:49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-12 | Cal St. Fullerton | L 82–86 | 15:16 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-05 | UC San Diego | L 74–77 | 20:28 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-31 | Hawaii | L 82–89 | 11:51 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-29 | UC Riverside | L 61–71 | 18:17 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 75.0% |
| 2026-01-24 | UC Santa Barbara | L 71–74 | 12:52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2026-01-22 | Cal St. Fullerton | L 61–71 | 19:14 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-17 | CSUN | W 87–80 | 21:04 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-15 | UC Riverside | W 88–73 | 11:02 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-10 | CSU Bakersfield | W 81–75 | 7:22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2026-01-08 | UC Irvine | L 64–74 | 20:50 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-03 | Cal Poly | W 74–66 | 20:02 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 100.0% |
| 2025-12-21 | Iowa St. | L 60–91 | 15:47 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025-12-18 | Pepperdine | W 81–78 | 13:42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2025-12-09 | San Jose St. | L 83–89 | 19:45 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2025-12-06 | UC San Diego | L 74–80 | 27:18 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025-12-04 · NCAA | UC Santa Barbara | L 77–84 | 19:12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025-11-30 | San Diego | W 76–72 | 23:16 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 40.0% |
| 2025-11-26 | Portland | L 73–93 | 15:19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-21 | Montana St. | L 72–78 | 15:39 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2025-11-16 | Illinois St. | L 80–82 | 14:14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025-11-12 | Pacific | L 66–69 | 11:01 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2025-11-08 | Fresno St. | L 62–82 | 8:54 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | — |
| 2025-11-04 | San Diego St. | L 45–77 | 14:53 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 100.0% |