AJ Dancler
Coastal Carolina · 2025–26 · 31 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
1039:51 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 31
- Minutes per game
- 33:33
- Points per game
- 15.6
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 5.3 / 2.0
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 15.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| Per 40 minutes | 18.6 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Season totals | 483 | 165 | 63 | 24 | 4 | 45 | 74 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 161–407 | 39.6% | 13.1 | 15.7 |
| 2P | 84–210 | 40.0% | 6.8 | 8.1 |
| 3P | 77–197 | 39.1% | 6.4 | 7.6 |
| FT | 84–111 | 75.7% | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | 53.0% | 48.4% | 27.3% | 1.40 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Coastal Car · Low and other · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $33K
- 80% range $3K to $110K
- Median share of team pool
- 13.8%
- team pool $320K, 80% range $115K to $825K
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $29K to $35K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $2K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 82.3%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Coastal Car: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Coastal Car | $33Kspeculative | $3K to $110K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | -0.3 | -1.6 to +0.9 | Sufficient evidence | -0.3 | -0.0 | +5.4range +4.6 to +6.1 | 3,138 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Le Moyne | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -2.4 | -3.6 to -1.1 | Sufficient evidence | +0.5 | -2.9 | +1.8range +1.3 to +2.3 | 2,509 | Season detail | |
| 2024 | Le Moyne | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -2.1 | -3.5 to -1.3 | Sufficient evidence | -0.1 | -2.0 | +0.8range +0.5 to +1.1 | 973 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 35:15 | 33:33 | 24:44–49:07 | |
| Points | 15.8 | 15.6 | 4.0–32.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 53.9% | 49.1% | 18.2%–93.3% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Ga. Southern | L 72–96 | 34:55 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 64.3% |
| 2026-02-27 | James Madison | W 69–68 | 38:27 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6-14 | 3-7 | 5-5 | 53.6% |
| 2026-02-24 | Georgia St. | W 76–71 | 36:11 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12-20 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 70.0% |
| 2026-02-21 | Marshall | W 79–75 | 33:14 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-18 | James Madison | L 65–67 | 33:26 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3-11 | 1-7 | 1-2 | 31.8% |
| 2026-02-12 | Louisiana | W 69–65 | 32:29 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5-15 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 43.3% |
| 2026-02-07 | Massachusetts | W 94–91 | 49:07 | 24 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9-16 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 75.0% |
| 2026-02-04 | Arkansas St. | L 66–70 | 32:54 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4-15 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 36.7% |
| 2026-02-01 | ULM | W 83–79 | 35:50 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 13-21 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 76.2% |
| 2026-01-29 | South Alabama | L 48–53 | 36:46 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3-16 | 3-12 | 1-2 | 28.1% |
| 2026-01-24 | Southern Miss. | W 85–67 | 35:30 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6-9 | 4-5 | 4-6 | 88.9% |
| 2026-01-22 | Texas St. | W 72–70 | 27:09 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 55.6% |
| 2026-01-17 | Ga. Southern | W 79–75 | 36:30 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4-16 | 3-11 | 9-10 | 34.4% |
| 2026-01-14 | Marshall | W 85–83 | 37:07 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8-11 | 3-5 | 7-7 | 86.4% |
| 2026-01-10 | App State | W 67–62 | 28:25 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 70.0% |
| 2026-01-08 | Old Dominion | L 66–70 | 35:05 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-14 | 1-5 | 2-3 | 25.0% |
| 2026-01-03 | Georgia St. | L 71–89 | 29:27 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6-14 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-01 | Ga. Southern | L 81–82 | 33:15 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5-17 | 2-8 | 6-8 | 35.3% |
| 2025-12-22 | Saint Joseph's | W 68–62 | 35:47 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7-14 | 2-7 | 5-7 | 57.1% |
| 2025-12-20 | Old Dominion | W 76–74 | 33:51 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5-13 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 38.5% |
| 2025-12-18 | App State | L 49–67 | 29:48 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 25.0% |
| 2025-12-13 | Grand Canyon | L 61–82 | 32:19 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4-14 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 39.3% |
| 2025-12-06 | Winthrop | W 88–84 | 24:44 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6-14 | 5-9 | 1-1 | 60.7% |
| 2025-12-03 | USC Upstate | L 78–85 | 41:18 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5-18 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 38.9% |
| 2025-11-30 | Alabama A&M | W 67–60 | 34:51 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4-11 | 1-3 | 10-12 | 40.9% |
| 2025-11-23 | Illinois St. | L 42–94 | 30:29 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3-15 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 20.0% |
| 2025-11-22 | North Dakota | W 75–58 | 35:20 | 31 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11-15 | 6-8 | 3-5 | 93.3% |
| 2025-11-21 | Western Ill. | W 84–64 | 28:16 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 38.5% |
| 2025-11-14 | Jacksonville St. | L 67–74 | 27:43 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2-11 | 0-6 | 3-3 | 18.2% |
| 2025-11-11 | Winthrop | W 72–66 | 32:18 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2-11 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 22.7% |
| 2025-11-03 | Western Mich. | L 71–76 | 27:20 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 6-9 | 54.5% |