Ryan Abelman
Northern Ariz. · 2025–26 · 27 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
877:53 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 27
- Minutes per game
- 32:31
- Points per game
- 10.9
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 4.9 / 1.8
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Per 40 minutes | 13.4 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Season totals | 294 | 132 | 48 | 31 | 4 | 29 | 53 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 103–258 | 39.9% | 9.6 | 11.8 |
| 2P | 53–121 | 43.8% | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| 3P | 50–137 | 36.5% | 5.1 | 6.2 |
| FT | 38–43 | 88.4% | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.6% | 53.1% | 53.1% | 16.7% | 1.66 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Northern Arizona · Low and other · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $54K
- 80% range $12K to $190K
- Median share of team pool
- 21.1%
- team pool $225K, 80% range $86K to $590K
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $45K to $58K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $2K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 76.6%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Northern Arizona: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Northern Arizona | $54Kspeculative | $12K to $190K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | +0.2 | -0.7 to +1.3 | Sufficient evidence | +0.6 | -0.4 | +3.3range +2.9 to +3.6 | 2,805 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Northern Arizona | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | +0.5 | -0.5 to +1.4 | Sufficient evidence | +1.3 | -0.9 | +2.2range +1.9 to +2.7 | 1,226 | Season detail | |
| 2024 | Northern Arizona | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -1.6 | -2.4 to -0.7 | Limited evidence | -1.3 | -0.3 | +0.4range +0.3 to +0.5 | 542 | Limited evidence: 300 to 599 on-court possessions. Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 28:42 | 32:31 | 20:27–39:56 | |
| Points | 7.2 | 10.9 | 2.0–24.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 48.6% | 49.8% | 12.5%–100.0% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Idaho St. | L 65–73 | 26:48 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 40.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | Montana St. | L 65–76 | 34:38 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 16.7% |
| 2026-02-28 | Eastern Wash. | L 57–88 | 20:27 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | Idaho | L 58–78 | 29:46 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 36.4% |
| 2026-02-21 | Northern Colo. | L 77–78 | 31:49 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-14 | Sacramento St. | W 79–74 | 38:16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 43.8% |
| 2026-02-12 | Portland St. | L 68–77 | 31:29 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 38.9% |
| 2026-02-07 | Weber St. | L 53–72 | 30:40 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 35.7% |
| 2026-02-05 | Idaho St. | W 79–73 | 38:20 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6-9 | 5-6 | 4-4 | 94.4% |
| 2026-01-31 | Idaho | L 62–79 | 31:02 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 42.9% |
| 2026-01-29 | Eastern Wash. | W 92–86 | 39:56 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6-12 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 66.7% |
| 2026-01-24 | Northern Colo. | W 81–77 | 25:50 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 7-8 | 62.5% |
| 2026-01-15 | Sacramento St. | L 69–83 | 35:27 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 25.0% |
| 2026-01-10 | Idaho St. | L 79–81 | 28:35 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 60.0% |
| 2026-01-08 | Weber St. | L 65–78 | 25:34 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2-10 | 0-7 | 0-0 | 20.0% |
| 2026-01-03 | Montana St. | L 68–77 | 27:46 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 37.5% |
| 2026-01-01 | Montana | L 64–78 | 38:11 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5-14 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 46.4% |
| 2025-12-21 | UIW | L 66–90 | 33:24 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 77.8% |
| 2025-12-18 | Southern Utah | W 65–57 | 38:07 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8-11 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 90.9% |
| 2025-12-13 | San Diego | L 69–78 | 31:18 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 77.8% |
| 2025-12-09 | Arizona St. | L 48–73 | 32:19 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 27.8% |
| 2025-12-06 | North Dakota St. | L 68–69 | 35:51 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4-13 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 42.3% |
| 2025-12-03 | South Dakota St. | L 62–75 | 34:10 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 29.2% |
| 2025-11-26 | Southeast Mo. St. | W 79–72 | 35:59 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7-13 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 69.2% |
| 2025-11-24 | Cal Poly | W 93–87 | 36:13 | 21 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8-18 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 55.6% |
| 2025-11-11 | Arizona | L 49–84 | 27:04 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 12.5% |
| 2025-11-03 | Drake | L 71–77 | 38:54 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6-19 | 5-13 | 1-1 | 44.7% |