AJ Barnes
Southern U. · 2025–26 · 27 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
613:41 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 27
- Minutes per game
- 22:44
- Points per game
- 8.6
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 5.0 / 1.6
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Per 40 minutes | 15.2 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Season totals | 233 | 135 | 44 | 34 | 12 | 23 | 60 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 81–207 | 39.1% | 7.7 | 13.5 |
| 2P | 54–133 | 40.6% | 4.9 | 8.7 |
| 3P | 27–74 | 36.5% | 2.7 | 4.8 |
| FT | 44–59 | 74.6% | 2.2 | 3.8 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.7% | 50.0% | 35.7% | 28.5% | 1.91 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Southern Univ · Low and other · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $18K
- 80% range $4K to $62K
- Median share of team pool
- 10.9%
- team pool $175K, 80% range $60K to $480K
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $18K in all four
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $1K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 50.2%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Southern Univ: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Southern Univ | $18Kspeculative | $4K to $62K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | +0.4 | -0.6 to +1.4 | Sufficient evidence | +0.5 | -0.1 | +3.2range +2.8 to +3.6 | 2,182 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Southern Univ | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -0.2 | -1.1 to +1.0 | Limited evidence | -1.0 | +0.8 | +0.8range +0.7 to +1.0 | 527 | Limited evidence: 300 to 599 on-court possessions. Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 21:52 | 22:44 | 7:24–35:26 | |
| Points | 9.4 | 8.6 | 0.0–22.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 45.4% | 40.7% | 0.0%–100.0% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Prairie View | L 66–72 | 25:16 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 58.3% |
| 2026-03-13 | Florida A&M | W 73–70 | 15:43 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-12 | Ark.-Pine Bluff | W 84–81 | 26:39 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 90.0% |
| 2026-03-05 | Alabama A&M | W 88–85 | 25:51 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 7-8 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-03 | Alabama St. | W 71–64 | 15:52 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 28.6% |
| 2026-02-28 | Bethune-Cookman | L 79–82 | 22:33 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4-8 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 68.8% |
| 2026-02-26 | Florida A&M | L 71–82 | 22:30 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 54.5% |
| 2026-02-21 | Grambling | W 87–73 | 29:49 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8-10 | 4-4 | 2-3 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-16 | Texas Southern | L 73–74 | 26:31 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 72.2% |
| 2026-02-14 | Prairie View | W 87–82 | 17:10 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-09 | Alabama St. | W 69–68 | 30:33 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 66.7% |
| 2026-02-07 | Alabama A&M | W 81–68 | 32:57 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5-11 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 59.1% |
| 2026-02-02 | Jackson St. | W 96–91 | 29:31 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 38.9% |
| 2026-01-31 | Alcorn | L 73–78 | 17:23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 25.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | Mississippi Val. | W 80–69 | 7:24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-24 | Ark.-Pine Bluff | L 74–75 | 35:26 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4-12 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 33.3% |
| 2026-01-17 | Grambling | W 71–53 | 28:06 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 43.8% |
| 2026-01-12 | Bethune-Cookman | W 77–73 | 30:02 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-10 | Florida A&M | L 59–67 | 23:06 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 41.7% |
| 2026-01-05 | Prairie View | L 85–89 | 13:14 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 41.7% |
| 2025-12-29 | Illinois | L 55–90 | 13:34 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 25.0% |
| 2025-12-21 | Baylor | L 67–111 | 18:03 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 28.6% |
| 2025-12-16 | California Baptist | L 67–75 | 22:25 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 25.0% |
| 2025-12-10 | Texas St. | L 83–86 | 27:54 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 4-7 | 41.7% |
| 2025-12-08 | Texas | L 69–95 | 16:04 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 50.0% |
| 2025-11-29 | Northwestern St. | W 75–73 | 12:27 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-05 | Marquette | L 82–100 | 27:38 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 6-7 | 55.0% |