UC San Diego

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for UC San Diego, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Tom Beattie	80.5%	+2.4range +1.4 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	+7.4range +6.7 to +8.2Sufficient evidence	$64KspeculativeLoading	$21K to $180KLoading
Leo Beath	75.8%	+0.8range -0.0 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.4 to +6.9Sufficient evidence	$34KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $96KLoading
Alex Chaikin	63.9%	+0.5range -0.6 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+5.0range +4.3 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$25KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $80KLoading
Hudson Mayes	60.2%	+0.7range -0.4 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.1 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	$26KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $79KLoading
Bol Dengdit	59.3%	+1.1range +0.1 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+4.9range +4.3 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	$28KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $83KLoading
Aidan Burke	51.9%	+0.8range -0.7 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.6 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$22KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $68KLoading
Emanuel Prospere II	45.2%	+3.0range +1.7 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	+4.4range +3.9 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	$43KspeculativeLoading	$14K to $135KLoading
Jaden Vance	22.4%	+0.1range -0.9 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.4 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $26KLoading
Trap Johnson	15.5%	-0.7range -1.6 to -0.1Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.9 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $16KLoading
Dimitrije Vukicevic	13.7%	-0.0range -0.9 to +0.9Limited evidence	+1.0range +0.8 to +1.1Limited evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $18KLoading
Cade Pendleton	9.6%	-0.2range -0.7 to +0.3Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.7Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $13KLoading
Ryder Elisaldez	1.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Christopher Cox	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $295K; 80% Range $110K to $760K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $290K to $300K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Tom Beattie	80.5%	$64K	$21K to $180K	20.6%	$63K to $66K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Leo Beath	75.8%	$34K	$9K to $96K	13.1%	$33K to $34K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Alex Chaikin	63.9%	$25K	$5K to $80K	10.4%	$25K to $26K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Hudson Mayes	60.2%	$26K	$6K to $79K	10.4%	$25K to $26K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bol Dengdit	59.3%	$28K	$8K to $83K	10.9%	$28K to $29K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aidan Burke	51.9%	$22K	$5K to $68K	9.0%	$22K to $23K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Emanuel Prospere II	45.2%	$43K	$14K to $135K	13.3%	$42K to $44K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaden Vance	22.4%	$8K	$2K to $26K	3.5%	$8K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Trap Johnson	15.5%	$5K	$1K to $16K	2.0%	$5K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dimitrije Vukicevic	13.7%	$6K	$2K to $18K	2.4%	$6K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cade Pendleton	9.6%	$4K	$1K to $13K	1.7%	$4K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ryder Elisaldez	1.9%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Christopher Cox	0.2%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$295K	$110K to $760K	100%	$290K to $300K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of California-San Diego (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,633,627	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,633,627
Athletics department expenses	$36,538,768
Athletics department revenue	$36,538,768

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (91%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$3,633,627	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,633,627	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	3
2 days	9
3 or more days	19

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.6
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	3
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology