Weber St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Weber St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Tijan Saine Jr.	82.8%	+0.4range -0.8 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+5.4range +4.7 to +6.0Sufficient evidence	$32KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $98KLoading
Viljami Vartiainen	67.2%	+0.9range -0.1 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +4.2 to +5.2Sufficient evidence	$36KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $105KLoading
Malek Gomma	63.4%	+2.0range +1.0 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.4 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$50KspeculativeLoading	$16K to $165KLoading
Nigel Burris	59.1%	-1.3range -2.5 to -0.2Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.7 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $39KLoading
Edwin Suarez Jr.	54.3%	-0.3range -1.4 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.9 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $46KLoading
Trevor Hennig	46.7%	-0.5range -1.8 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.3 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $38KLoading
Jace Whiting	43.0%	+0.3range -1.0 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.4 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $48KLoading
ArDarius Grayson	31.2%	-1.3range -2.6 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.4 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $24KLoading
Duce Paschal	29.8%	-0.1range -1.0 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.7 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $31KLoading
Declan Cutler	13.1%	-0.9range -1.8 to +0.2Limited evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +0.9Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $13KLoading
David Hansen	8.5%	-0.4range -1.3 to +0.6Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $11KLoading
Bourgeois Tshilobo	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Brady Smith	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $220K; 80% Range $84K to $575K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $215K to $230K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Tijan Saine Jr.	82.8%	$32K	$6K to $98K	15.9%	$31K to $33K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Viljami Vartiainen	67.2%	$36K	$11K to $105K	15.3%	$35K to $37K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Malek Gomma	63.4%	$50K	$16K to $165K	20.5%	$49K to $53K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nigel Burris	59.1%	$9K	$1K to $39K	6.3%	$9K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Edwin Suarez Jr.	54.3%	$14K	$2K to $46K	8.4%	$13K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Trevor Hennig	46.7%	$10K	$1K to $38K	6.4%	$10K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jace Whiting	43.0%	$15K	$3K to $48K	8.0%	$15K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
ArDarius Grayson	31.2%	$6K	$1K to $24K	3.9%	$6K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Duce Paschal	29.8%	$10K	$2K to $31K	5.5%	$10K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Declan Cutler	13.1%	$4K	$1K to $13K	2.3%	$4K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
David Hansen	8.5%	$4K	$1K to $11K	1.9%	$4K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bourgeois Tshilobo	0.5%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Brady Smith	0.5%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$220K	$84K to $575K	100%	$215K to $230K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Weber State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,223,737	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,223,737
Athletics department expenses	$19,668,633
Athletics department revenue	$19,668,633

Coverage and exclusions

26 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (87%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

4 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,223,737	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,223,737	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	9
3 or more days	20

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology