Washington

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Washington, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Hannes Steinbach	80.2%	+4.3range +3.2 to +5.2Sufficient evidence	+7.0range +6.4 to +7.5Sufficient evidence	$940KspeculativeLoading	$575K to $1.60MLoading
Quimari Peterson	76.3%	+1.1range -0.2 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+5.2range +4.5 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	$390KspeculativeLoading	$99K to $650KLoading
Zoom Diallo	72.8%	+2.7range +1.7 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	+5.7range +5.1 to +6.3Sufficient evidence	$595KspeculativeLoading	$375K to $930KLoading
Wesley Yates III	62.4%	+0.8range -0.6 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+4.2range +3.6 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$305KspeculativeLoading	$65K to $500KLoading
Franck Kepnang	46.4%	+3.4range +2.3 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.5 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	$445KspeculativeLoading	$285K to $760KLoading
Bryson Tucker	35.5%	+0.2range -0.8 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.9 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	$155KspeculativeLoading	$35K to $275KLoading
JJ Mandaquit	31.8%	+1.2range -0.3 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.9 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$180KspeculativeLoading	$57K to $300KLoading
Desmond Claude	24.4%	+0.9range -0.1 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.4 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$135KspeculativeLoading	$46K to $215KLoading
Lathan Sommerville	23.9%	-1.7range -2.6 to -0.7Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$55KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $145KLoading
Courtland Muldrew	19.0%	+0.6range -0.3 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.1 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$100KspeculativeLoading	$37K to $170KLoading
Nikola Dzepina	11.9%	-0.3range -1.2 to +0.7Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence	$57KspeculativeLoading	$22K to $105KLoading
Jacob Ognacevic	10.6%	+0.1range -0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.7Limited evidence	$58KspeculativeLoading	$25K to $98KLoading
Jasir Rencher	4.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Brandon Roy Jr	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.55M; 80% Range $2.60M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.55M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Hannes Steinbach	80.2%	$940K	$575K to $1.60M	25.5%	$940K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Quimari Peterson	76.3%	$390K	$99K to $650K	11.7%	$390K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zoom Diallo	72.8%	$595K	$375K to $930K	16.4%	$595K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Wesley Yates III	62.4%	$305K	$65K to $500K	9.2%	$305K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Franck Kepnang	46.4%	$445K	$285K to $760K	12.1%	$445K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Bryson Tucker	35.5%	$155K	$35K to $275K	4.7%	$155K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
JJ Mandaquit	31.8%	$180K	$57K to $300K	5.5%	$180K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Desmond Claude	24.4%	$135K	$46K to $215K	4.0%	$135K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Lathan Sommerville	23.9%	$55K	$18K to $145K	1.7%	$55K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Courtland Muldrew	19.0%	$100K	$37K to $170K	3.1%	$100K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Nikola Dzepina	11.9%	$57K	$22K to $105K	1.7%	$57K in all four	$25K	Limited evidence
Jacob Ognacevic	10.6%	$58K	$25K to $98K	1.7%	$58K in all four	$25K	Limited evidence
Jasir Rencher	4.3%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Brandon Roy Jr	0.5%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.55M	$2.60M to $4.95M	100%	$3.55M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Washington-Seattle Campus (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$13,456,854
Men's basketball expenses	$11,725,277
Athletics department expenses	$174,834,634
Athletics department revenue	$178,415,083

Coverage and exclusions

32 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$13,456,854	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$11,725,277	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	1
3 or more days	29

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology