St Mary's CA

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for St Mary's CA, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Joshua Dent	92.3%	+5.2range +4.4 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	+8.4range +7.7 to +9.1Sufficient evidence	$195KspeculativeLoading	$80K to $465KLoading
Paulius Murauskas	81.9%	+4.6range +3.5 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	+7.0range +6.3 to +7.7Sufficient evidence	$155KspeculativeLoading	$63K to $360KLoading
Dillan Shaw	73.4%	+2.9range +1.7 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	+5.4range +4.6 to +6.0Sufficient evidence	$90KspeculativeLoading	$34K to $225KLoading
Mikey Lewis	66.5%	+4.0range +2.9 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	+5.2range +4.7 to +5.8Sufficient evidence	$110KspeculativeLoading	$45K to $250KLoading
Andrew McKeever	55.9%	+3.2range +2.1 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.5 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$78KspeculativeLoading	$30K to $185KLoading
Harry Wessels	43.0%	+2.5range +1.3 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.5 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$51KspeculativeLoading	$19K to $125KLoading
Liam Campbell	37.2%	+1.3range +0.5 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.9 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$33KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $88KLoading
Rory Hawke	19.9%	-0.5range -1.6 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $38KLoading
Mantas Juzenas	12.3%	+0.9range +0.1 to +1.7Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.7Limited evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $35KLoading
Tony Duckett	9.9%	-0.3range -1.1 to +0.4Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $26KLoading
Kevin Gad	4.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$6Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $14KLoading
Cade Bennett	1.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$6Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $14KLoading
Oliver Faubert	1.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$6Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $14KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $785K; 80% Range $335K to $1.75M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $715K to $1.00M; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

The widest scenario range, $435K to $2.20M, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Joshua Dent	92.3%	$195K	$80K to $465K	23.8%	$180K to $250K	$6K	Sufficient evidence
Paulius Murauskas	81.9%	$155K	$63K to $360K	19.0%	$140K to $195K	$6K	Sufficient evidence
Dillan Shaw	73.4%	$90K	$34K to $225K	12.5%	$82K to $115K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mikey Lewis	66.5%	$110K	$45K to $250K	13.8%	$98K to $135K	$6K	Sufficient evidence
Andrew McKeever	55.9%	$78K	$30K to $185K	10.5%	$70K to $98K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Harry Wessels	43.0%	$51K	$19K to $125K	7.3%	$46K to $65K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Liam Campbell	37.2%	$33K	$10K to $88K	4.8%	$30K to $42K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Rory Hawke	19.9%	$13K	$4K to $38K	1.8%	$12K to $16K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mantas Juzenas	12.3%	$14K	$5K to $35K	1.9%	$12K to $17K	$6K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tony Duckett	9.9%	$10K	$3K to $26K	1.3%	$9K to $12K	$6K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kevin Gad	4.2%	$6K	$2K to $14K	0.8%	$5K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Cade Bennett	1.9%	$6K	$2K to $14K	0.8%	$5K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Oliver Faubert	1.4%	$6K	$2K to $14K	0.8%	$5K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$785K	$335K to $1.75M	100%	$715K to $1.00M	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Saint Mary's College of California (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$8,298,148	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$8,298,148
Athletics department expenses	$31,979,820
Athletics department revenue	$31,979,820

Coverage and exclusions

27 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (84%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

5 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$8,298,148	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$8,298,148	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	2
3 or more days	27

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology