North Dakota

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for North Dakota, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Eli King	85.0%	+1.5range +0.5 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	+5.3range +4.8 to +5.8Sufficient evidence	$86KspeculativeLoading	$27K to $275KLoading
Greyson Uelmen	71.6%	-0.9range -2.1 to +0.3Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.1 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $71KLoading
Garrett Anderson	65.8%	-1.1range -2.0 to -0.0Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.9 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $62KLoading
Zach Kraft	60.6%	+0.4range -0.6 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.2 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$36KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $120KLoading
George Natsvlishvili	48.4%	-0.0range -1.2 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.4 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $74KLoading
Anthony Smith lll	39.3%	-2.3range -3.5 to -0.8Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.4 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $29KLoading
Josh Jones	36.3%	-0.4range -1.3 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.8 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $46KLoading
Reggie Thomas	35.2%	+0.0range -1.2 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.8 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $59KLoading
Marley Curtis	31.5%	-1.5range -2.6 to -0.2Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.3 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $30KLoading
Wylee Delorme	13.8%	-1.1range -1.8 to -0.5Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $16KLoading
Matthew Bothun	5.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Karson Ouse	3.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Anthony Doppler	2.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Ryan Erikson	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $275K; 80% Range $100K to $730K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $240K to $290K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Eli King	85.0%	$86K	$27K to $275K	28.2%	$75K to $89K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Greyson Uelmen	71.6%	$18K	$2K to $71K	10.1%	$16K to $19K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Garrett Anderson	65.8%	$15K	$1K to $62K	8.6%	$13K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zach Kraft	60.6%	$36K	$9K to $120K	13.4%	$32K to $38K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
George Natsvlishvili	48.4%	$23K	$4K to $74K	9.7%	$20K to $24K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Anthony Smith lll	39.3%	$6K	$1K to $29K	2.9%	$5K to $6K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Josh Jones	36.3%	$13K	$2K to $46K	6.4%	$12K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Reggie Thomas	35.2%	$17K	$3K to $59K	7.2%	$15K to $18K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Marley Curtis	31.5%	$7K	$1K to $30K	3.8%	$6K to $7K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Wylee Delorme	13.8%	$4K	$1K to $16K	2.2%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matthew Bothun	5.6%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Karson Ouse	3.5%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Anthony Doppler	2.7%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Ryan Erikson	0.7%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$275K	$100K to $730K	100%	$240K to $290K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of North Dakota (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,405,937	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,405,937
Athletics department expenses	$35,076,412
Athletics department revenue	$35,076,412

Coverage and exclusions

24 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (75%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

8 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,405,937	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,405,937	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	3
2 days	6
3 or more days	22

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	3
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology