Norfolk St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Norfolk St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Anthony McComb III	86.3%	-0.2range -1.3 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+4.4range +3.8 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$35KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $115KLoading
Elijah Jamison	69.4%	-1.5range -2.4 to -0.4Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.6 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $56KLoading
Devon Ellis	69.3%	-1.4range -2.7 to -0.2Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.5 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $57KLoading
Jordan Leaks	58.6%	-1.1range -2.1 to +0.0Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.3 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $57KLoading
Keyontae Lewis	44.6%	+1.6range +0.5 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.4 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$50KspeculativeLoading	$14K to $190KLoading
My'kel Jenkins	42.4%	-0.3range -1.5 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.8 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $62KLoading
Jaquel Morris	35.1%	-0.3range -1.4 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.5 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $54KLoading
Adrean Newton	33.4%	-0.4range -1.1 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.5 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $43KLoading
Dian Wright-Forde	31.7%	+0.1range -1.0 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.5 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $59KLoading
Melo Baines	21.8%	-1.9range -2.8 to -0.9Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $18KLoading
Yel Deeng	6.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Mekhi Reid	1.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Ahmad Torrence	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $240K; 80% Range $87K to $640K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $235K to $255K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Anthony McComb III	86.3%	$35K	$4K to $115K	17.1%	$35K to $37K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Elijah Jamison	69.4%	$11K	$1K to $56K	8.2%	$11K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Devon Ellis	69.3%	$12K	$1K to $57K	8.3%	$12K to $13K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jordan Leaks	58.6%	$14K	$1K to $57K	8.6%	$14K to $15K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Keyontae Lewis	44.6%	$50K	$14K to $190K	17.7%	$48K to $53K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
My'kel Jenkins	42.4%	$17K	$2K to $62K	8.3%	$17K to $18K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaquel Morris	35.1%	$15K	$2K to $54K	7.4%	$15K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Adrean Newton	33.4%	$13K	$2K to $43K	6.7%	$13K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dian Wright-Forde	31.7%	$17K	$4K to $59K	7.3%	$16K to $18K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Melo Baines	21.8%	$4K	$1K to $18K	2.2%	$4K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Yel Deeng	6.3%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Mekhi Reid	1.1%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Ahmad Torrence	0.1%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$240K	$87K to $640K	100%	$235K to $255K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Norfolk State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,771,667	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,771,667
Athletics department expenses	$24,823,369
Athletics department revenue	$24,823,369

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 28 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,771,667	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,771,667	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	6
3 or more days	19

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	2
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology