McNeese St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for McNeese St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Javohn Garcia	66.7%	+4.1range +2.7 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	+5.4range +4.7 to +6.2Sufficient evidence	$41KspeculativeLoading	$14K to $120KLoading
Garwey Dual	65.5%	+3.2range +1.7 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	+4.9range +4.1 to +5.5Sufficient evidence	$30KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $90KLoading
Tyshawn Archie	64.8%	+4.6range +2.9 to +6.3Sufficient evidence	+5.5range +4.7 to +6.2Sufficient evidence	$43KspeculativeLoading	$15K to $135KLoading
Larry Johnson	64.2%	+2.2range +1.2 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+4.4range +3.8 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	$24KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $70KLoading
DJ Richards	51.5%	+1.4range +0.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.7 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $48KLoading
Jerrell Colbert	49.4%	+1.2range -0.3 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.4 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $43KLoading
Jacolb Fredson-Cole	44.3%	-0.6range -1.9 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.8 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $26KLoading
Carl Cherenfant	39.6%	+2.2range +0.9 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.2 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $44KLoading
Peitok Machar	29.0%	+2.2range +0.9 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.6 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $34KLoading
Yanis Ndjonga	22.8%	+2.3range +1.0 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.3 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $29KLoading
JJ Rembert	2.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $225K; 80% Range $83K to $610K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $205K to $275K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 11; 1 floor only

The widest scenario range, $100K to $725K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Javohn Garcia	66.7%	$41K	$14K to $120K	17.1%	$37K to $49K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Garwey Dual	65.5%	$30K	$10K to $90K	13.6%	$28K to $37K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyshawn Archie	64.8%	$43K	$15K to $135K	18.3%	$40K to $52K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Larry Johnson	64.2%	$24K	$7K to $70K	11.6%	$22K to $29K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
DJ Richards	51.5%	$15K	$4K to $48K	8.0%	$14K to $18K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jerrell Colbert	49.4%	$14K	$3K to $43K	7.2%	$12K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jacolb Fredson-Cole	44.3%	$6K	$1K to $26K	3.6%	$6K to $8K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Carl Cherenfant	39.6%	$15K	$5K to $44K	7.4%	$14K to $18K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Peitok Machar	29.0%	$12K	$4K to $34K	5.7%	$11K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Yanis Ndjonga	22.8%	$10K	$3K to $29K	4.8%	$9K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
JJ Rembert	2.3%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.9%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$225K	$83K to $610K	100%	$205K to $275K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, McNeese State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,169,273	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,169,273
Athletics department expenses	$18,539,892
Athletics department revenue	$18,539,892

Coverage and exclusions

23 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (72%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

9 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$3,169,273	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,169,273	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	3
2 days	7
3 or more days	21

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology