Maine

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Maine, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
TJ Biel	76.6%	-0.7range -1.5 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.3 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$25KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $87KLoading
Ryan Mabrey	66.6%	-1.5range -2.4 to -0.5Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.6 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $58KLoading
Logan Carey	63.1%	+0.4range -0.5 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +3.1 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$55KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $215KLoading
Ace Flagg	59.4%	-0.9range -2.1 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.5 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$20KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $82KLoading
Mekhi Gray	57.9%	-2.2range -3.1 to -0.9Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.1 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $42KLoading
Caleb Crawford	49.5%	-1.1range -2.6 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +1.9 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $65KLoading
Keelan Steele	39.6%	-1.0range -1.8 to +0.0Sufficient evidence	+2.0range +1.8 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $52KLoading
Amare Allen	26.1%	-1.9range -3.0 to -0.9Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $21KLoading
Bashir N'Galang	22.5%	-1.6range -2.4 to -0.7Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $21KLoading
Yanis Bamba	21.7%	-1.9range -2.8 to -0.8Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $20KLoading
Isaac Bonilla	15.1%	-1.2range -2.2 to -0.1Limited evidence	+0.8range +0.6 to +0.9Limited evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $19KLoading
Emmitt Byther	1.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Killian Gribben	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $225K; 80% Range $83K to $595K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $220K to $230K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
TJ Biel	76.6%	$25K	$2K to $87K	14.7%	$24K to $26K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ryan Mabrey	66.6%	$12K	$1K to $58K	9.3%	$12K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Logan Carey	63.1%	$55K	$13K to $215K	19.5%	$53K to $56K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ace Flagg	59.4%	$20K	$2K to $82K	11.0%	$19K to $20K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mekhi Gray	57.9%	$7K	$1K to $42K	6.0%	$7K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Caleb Crawford	49.5%	$15K	$1K to $65K	8.6%	$14K to $15K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Keelan Steele	39.6%	$13K	$2K to $52K	7.5%	$13K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Amare Allen	26.1%	$5K	$1K to $21K	3.0%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bashir N'Galang	22.5%	$5K	$1K to $21K	3.4%	$5K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Yanis Bamba	21.7%	$5K	$1K to $20K	3.0%	$5K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaac Bonilla	15.1%	$5K	$1K to $19K	3.0%	$5K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Emmitt Byther	1.7%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Killian Gribben	0.3%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$225K	$83K to $595K	100%	$220K to $230K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Maine (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$1,994,568	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$1,994,568
Athletics department expenses	$22,438,557
Athletics department revenue	$22,438,557

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$1,994,568	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$1,994,568	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	6
3 or more days	22

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.6
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	2
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology