Liberty

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Liberty, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Zach Cleveland	88.0%	+3.5range +2.4 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	+8.3range +7.5 to +9.0Sufficient evidence	$105KspeculativeLoading	$34K to $290KLoading
Brett Decker Jr.	85.6%	+0.9range -0.0 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	+6.5range +5.7 to +7.3Sufficient evidence	$41KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $120KLoading
Colin Porter	84.6%	+1.7range +0.6 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+6.9range +6.2 to +7.7Sufficient evidence	$56KspeculativeLoading	$17K to $165KLoading
Kaden Metheny	83.7%	+1.1range +0.0 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+6.5range +5.6 to +7.5Sufficient evidence	$45KspeculativeLoading	$12K to $130KLoading
JJ Harper	67.9%	+1.7range +0.5 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+5.6range +4.9 to +6.4Sufficient evidence	$45KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $125KLoading
Josh Smith	38.1%	+2.3range +0.7 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.8 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$33KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $100KLoading
Zander Carter	29.8%	+1.6range +0.4 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.1 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$21KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $59KLoading
Zander Yates	10.0%	-3.0range -3.6 to -2.2Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $11KLoading
Ryan Jones Jr.	7.9%	-1.3range -1.9 to -0.8Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $12KLoading
Drew Grimes	1.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$3Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $8KLoading
JC Shirer Jr.	0.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$3Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $8KLoading
Torr Sorensen	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$3Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $8KLoading
Brady Kester	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$3Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $8KLoading
TJ Drain	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$3Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $8KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $390K; 80% Range $140K to $1.00M
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $365K to $405K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 5 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Zach Cleveland	88.0%	$105K	$34K to $290K	24.7%	$98K to $105K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brett Decker Jr.	85.6%	$41K	$10K to $120K	12.7%	$39K to $43K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Colin Porter	84.6%	$56K	$17K to $165K	15.9%	$54K to $59K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kaden Metheny	83.7%	$45K	$12K to $130K	13.5%	$42K to $47K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
JJ Harper	67.9%	$45K	$13K to $125K	12.5%	$42K to $47K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Josh Smith	38.1%	$33K	$10K to $100K	8.5%	$31K to $34K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zander Carter	29.8%	$21K	$6K to $59K	5.8%	$19K to $21K	$3K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zander Yates	10.0%	$4K	$1K to $11K	1.0%	$4K in all four	$3K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ryan Jones Jr.	7.9%	$4K	$1K to $12K	1.1%	$4K in all four	$3K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Drew Grimes	1.7%	$3K	$1K to $8K	0.7%	$2K to $3K	$3K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
JC Shirer Jr.	0.8%	$3K	$1K to $8K	0.7%	$2K to $3K	$3K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Torr Sorensen	0.7%	$3K	$1K to $8K	0.7%	$2K to $3K	$3K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Brady Kester	0.7%	$3K	$1K to $8K	0.7%	$2K to $3K	$3K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
TJ Drain	0.5%	$3K	$1K to $8K	0.7%	$2K to $3K	$3K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$390K	$140K to $1.00M	100%	$365K to $405K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Liberty University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$5,566,763	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$5,566,763
Athletics department expenses	$62,067,210
Athletics department revenue	$62,067,210

Coverage and exclusions

31 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$5,566,763	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$5,566,763	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	7
3 or more days	21

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology