Iowa St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Iowa St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Milan Momcilovic	76.0%	+8.1range +6.6 to +9.3Sufficient evidence	+8.3range +7.4 to +9.1Sufficient evidence	$820KspeculativeLoading	$535K to $1.35MLoading
Joshua Jefferson	73.7%	+7.4range +6.0 to +8.8Sufficient evidence	+7.6range +6.8 to +8.4Sufficient evidence	$720KspeculativeLoading	$475K to $1.10MLoading
Tamin Lipsey	72.1%	+4.8range +3.6 to +6.0Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.4 to +6.7Sufficient evidence	$460KspeculativeLoading	$275K to $690KLoading
Killyan Toure	64.4%	+4.1range +2.6 to +5.2Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.4 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	$360KspeculativeLoading	$200K to $545KLoading
Blake Buchanan	62.3%	+3.3range +2.0 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +4.0 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$305KspeculativeLoading	$145K to $470KLoading
Nate Heise	61.2%	+4.7range +3.3 to +6.4Sufficient evidence	+5.0range +4.3 to +5.8Sufficient evidence	$390KspeculativeLoading	$225K to $610KLoading
Jamarion Batemon	38.5%	+2.5range +0.7 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$165KspeculativeLoading	$62K to $280KLoading
Dominykas Pleta	26.2%	+2.0range +0.7 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.3 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$110KspeculativeLoading	$44K to $185KLoading
Dominick Nelson	13.8%	+0.2range -1.0 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	$52KspeculativeLoading	$23K to $97KLoading
Eric Mulder	5.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Cade Kelderman	4.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Xzavion Mitchell	1.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Anthony Rise	0.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.55M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Milan Momcilovic	76.0%	$820K	$535K to $1.35M	22.3%	$820K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Joshua Jefferson	73.7%	$720K	$475K to $1.10M	19.7%	$720K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Tamin Lipsey	72.1%	$460K	$275K to $690K	13.3%	$460K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Killyan Toure	64.4%	$360K	$200K to $545K	10.7%	$360K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Blake Buchanan	62.3%	$305K	$145K to $470K	9.0%	$305K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Nate Heise	61.2%	$390K	$225K to $610K	11.2%	$390K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Jamarion Batemon	38.5%	$165K	$62K to $280K	4.9%	$165K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Dominykas Pleta	26.2%	$110K	$44K to $185K	3.3%	$110K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Dominick Nelson	13.8%	$52K	$23K to $97K	1.5%	$52K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Eric Mulder	5.0%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Cade Kelderman	4.7%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Xzavion Mitchell	1.4%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Anthony Rise	0.8%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.55M to $4.95M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Iowa State University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$14,437,710
Men's basketball expenses	$10,382,761
Athletics department expenses	$103,893,160
Athletics department revenue	$103,899,204

Coverage and exclusions

37 of 37 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$14,437,710	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$10,382,761	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	4
2 days	3
3 or more days	29

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology