Illinois

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Illinois, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Keaton Wagler	85.6%	+6.4range +5.0 to +7.8Sufficient evidence	+9.1range +8.1 to +10.1Sufficient evidence	$780KspeculativeLoading	$525K to $1.20MLoading
David Mirkovic	74.3%	+5.8range +4.4 to +7.0Sufficient evidence	+7.4range +6.6 to +8.1Sufficient evidence	$605KspeculativeLoading	$410K to $885KLoading
Kylan Boswell	59.7%	+4.3range +2.8 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	+5.2range +4.6 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	$380KspeculativeLoading	$220K to $580KLoading
Andrej Stojakovic	59.0%	+3.8range +2.5 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	+4.9range +4.4 to +5.5Sufficient evidence	$340KspeculativeLoading	$195K to $520KLoading
Tomislav Ivisic	58.7%	+3.8range +2.6 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	+4.9range +4.3 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	$340KspeculativeLoading	$195K to $520KLoading
Ben Humrichous	55.2%	+4.0range +2.7 to +5.2Sufficient evidence	+4.7range +4.1 to +5.2Sufficient evidence	$335KspeculativeLoading	$195K to $515KLoading
Jake Davis	49.6%	+3.5range +2.0 to +4.8Sufficient evidence	+4.0range +3.4 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$265KspeculativeLoading	$135K to $415KLoading
Zvonimir Ivisic	41.4%	+5.7range +4.5 to +6.8Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.5 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$350KspeculativeLoading	$240K to $510KLoading
Mihailo Petrovic	5.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Brandon Lee	4.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Jason Jakstys	2.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Blake Fagbemi	2.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
AJ Redd	1.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.55M; 80% Range $2.55M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.55M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 5 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Keaton Wagler	85.6%	$780K	$525K to $1.20M	21.1%	$780K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
David Mirkovic	74.3%	$605K	$410K to $885K	16.5%	$605K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Kylan Boswell	59.7%	$380K	$220K to $580K	11.0%	$380K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Andrej Stojakovic	59.0%	$340K	$195K to $520K	10.0%	$340K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Tomislav Ivisic	58.7%	$340K	$195K to $520K	9.9%	$340K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Ben Humrichous	55.2%	$335K	$195K to $515K	9.8%	$335K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Jake Davis	49.6%	$265K	$135K to $415K	7.8%	$265K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Zvonimir Ivisic	41.4%	$350K	$240K to $510K	9.5%	$350K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Mihailo Petrovic	5.5%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Brandon Lee	4.1%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Jason Jakstys	2.7%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Blake Fagbemi	2.5%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
AJ Redd	1.8%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.55M	$2.55M to $4.95M	100%	$3.55M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$34,764,436
Men's basketball expenses	$20,565,967
Athletics department expenses	$174,612,181
Athletics department revenue	$174,612,181

Coverage and exclusions

34 of 37 games passed lineup acceptance (92%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 37 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$34,764,436	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$20,565,967	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched through an NCES IPEDS institution alias, with state and home-venue city agreeing.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	3
3 or more days	33

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology