Houston

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Houston, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Milos Uzan	81.9%	+5.9range +4.5 to +7.1Sufficient evidence	+8.2range +7.2 to +9.1Sufficient evidence	$665KspeculativeLoading	$450K to $985KLoading
Kingston Flemings	80.3%	+4.8range +3.7 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	+7.3range +6.5 to +8.1Sufficient evidence	$545KspeculativeLoading	$355K to $805KLoading
Emanuel Sharp	75.0%	+6.2range +5.0 to +7.3Sufficient evidence	+7.6range +6.8 to +8.3Sufficient evidence	$650KspeculativeLoading	$445K to $980KLoading
Chris Cenac Jr	63.3%	+5.4range +4.2 to +6.7Sufficient evidence	+5.9range +5.2 to +6.5Sufficient evidence	$485KspeculativeLoading	$330K to $710KLoading
Joseph Tugler	59.8%	+6.2range +4.6 to +7.4Sufficient evidence	+5.8range +5.1 to +6.4Sufficient evidence	$505KspeculativeLoading	$340K to $785KLoading
Kalifa Sakho	29.9%	+2.0range +0.8 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.7 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$130KspeculativeLoading	$52K to $220KLoading
Chase McCarty	28.4%	+2.6range +1.3 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.7 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$145KspeculativeLoading	$66K to $230KLoading
Isiah Harwell	28.1%	+2.3range +1.3 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.6 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$135KspeculativeLoading	$60K to $215KLoading
Mercy Miller	27.5%	+0.4range -0.9 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$82KspeculativeLoading	$27K to $165KLoading
Ramon Walker Jr.	20.4%	+0.5range -0.4 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +1.0 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$71KspeculativeLoading	$27K to $130KLoading
Cedric Lath	4.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Kordel Jefferson	0.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Jacob McFarland	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.55M; 80% Range $2.60M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.55M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Milos Uzan	81.9%	$665K	$450K to $985K	18.2%	$665K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Kingston Flemings	80.3%	$545K	$355K to $805K	15.5%	$545K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Emanuel Sharp	75.0%	$650K	$445K to $980K	17.8%	$650K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Chris Cenac Jr	63.3%	$485K	$330K to $710K	13.4%	$485K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Joseph Tugler	59.8%	$505K	$340K to $785K	13.9%	$505K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Kalifa Sakho	29.9%	$130K	$52K to $220K	3.9%	$130K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Chase McCarty	28.4%	$145K	$66K to $230K	4.3%	$145K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Isiah Harwell	28.1%	$135K	$60K to $215K	3.9%	$135K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Mercy Miller	27.5%	$82K	$27K to $165K	2.4%	$82K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ramon Walker Jr.	20.4%	$71K	$27K to $130K	2.1%	$71K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Cedric Lath	4.2%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Kordel Jefferson	0.8%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Jacob McFarland	0.4%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.55M	$2.60M to $4.95M	100%	$3.55M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Houston (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$14,577,598	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$14,577,598
Athletics department expenses	$100,162,965
Athletics department revenue	$100,162,965

Coverage and exclusions

36 of 37 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 37 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$14,577,598	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$14,577,598	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	4
2 days	3
3 or more days	29

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology