Akron

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Akron, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Tavari Johnson	81.1%	+3.9range +2.5 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	+6.7range +5.9 to +7.5Sufficient evidence	$53KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $150KLoading
Evan Mahaffey	73.2%	+4.1range +2.9 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.3 to +6.7Sufficient evidence	$50KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $145KLoading
Amani Lyles	67.7%	+3.0range +2.0 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	+5.0range +4.4 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$37KspeculativeLoading	$12K to $105KLoading
Shammah Scott	67.3%	+1.3range -0.1 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+4.2range +3.5 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	$21KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $67KLoading
Eric Mahaffey	54.1%	+4.7range +3.1 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	+4.5range +3.9 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	$42KspeculativeLoading	$14K to $125KLoading
Bowen Hardman	46.1%	+1.0range -0.0 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.3 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $44KLoading
Sharron Young	45.7%	+2.6range +1.3 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.7 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $67KLoading
Zach Halligan	28.0%	+0.4range -0.9 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $26KLoading
Marvin Musiime-Kamali	20.5%	-0.3range -1.7 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $17KLoading
Halil Barre	7.6%	+1.3range +0.9 to +1.9Limited evidence	+0.4range +0.4 to +0.4Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $13KLoading
Ognjen Stankovic	7.1%	-0.5range -1.4 to +0.3Limited evidence	+0.3range +0.3 to +0.4Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $9KLoading
Conner Groce	0.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Rich Brisco	0.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $275K; 80% Range $100K to $745K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $270K to $290K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Tavari Johnson	81.1%	$53K	$18K to $150K	18.3%	$52K to $56K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Evan Mahaffey	73.2%	$50K	$18K to $145K	17.5%	$48K to $53K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Amani Lyles	67.7%	$37K	$12K to $105K	13.4%	$36K to $39K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Shammah Scott	67.3%	$21K	$5K to $67K	9.2%	$20K to $22K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Eric Mahaffey	54.1%	$42K	$14K to $125K	14.3%	$40K to $44K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bowen Hardman	46.1%	$14K	$4K to $44K	6.0%	$14K to $15K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sharron Young	45.7%	$23K	$7K to $67K	8.7%	$22K to $24K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zach Halligan	28.0%	$8K	$2K to $26K	3.4%	$8K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Marvin Musiime-Kamali	20.5%	$5K	$1K to $17K	2.1%	$5K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Halil Barre	7.6%	$4K	$2K to $13K	1.7%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ognjen Stankovic	7.1%	$3K	$1K to $9K	1.2%	$3K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Conner Groce	0.9%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Rich Brisco	0.9%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$275K	$100K to $745K	100%	$270K to $290K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Akron Main Campus (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,258,454	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,258,454
Athletics department expenses	$33,581,788
Athletics department revenue	$33,581,790

Coverage and exclusions

32 of 33 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 33 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$3,258,454	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,258,454	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	3
2 days	1
3 or more days	28

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology