Matteo Porto

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Insufficient evidence

Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated.

135 on-court possessions · 38.4 minutes · 11 games low-minutes

Retrospective contributionβ

No retrospective contribution is shown for this player-season; the reason is stated above.

Speculative compensation · 2025–26β

Fresno St · Mid and high major · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.

Speculative best guess: $6K; 80% range $2K to $15K
Median share of team pool: 0.7%; team pool $910K, 80% range $395K to $2.05M
Across scenarios Z1 to Z4: $5K to $7K; the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
Floor part: $6K; shared by every player with possessions
Possession share: 3.5%; Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate

Point and 80% range on the team table's axis. Open circle: limited evidence or floor only.

Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Range driven by assumption, not data

Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.

Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.

Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks

Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.

Fresno St: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player

No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.

Program-level revenue allocation (frozen model)β

No program-level revenue allocation is shown from the frozen valuation model. Elasticity cross-check failed: the wins-to-revenue elasticity prior and the cross-section implied elasticity differ by more than the declared factor, and no gate validates the prior The speculative compensation estimate above is a separate model with its own assumptions and basis.

Matteo Porto

Retrospective contributionβ

Speculative compensation · 2025–26β

Program-level revenue allocation (frozen model)β

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