TCU

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for TCU, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Brock Harding	78.5%	+3.4range +2.1 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	+6.4range +5.7 to +7.0Sufficient evidence	$640KspeculativeLoading	$410K to $990KLoading
Jayden Pierre	75.4%	+3.2range +1.8 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.3 to +6.7Sufficient evidence	$575KspeculativeLoading	$360K to $880KLoading
David Punch	71.7%	+2.9range +1.3 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	+5.7range +4.9 to +6.3Sufficient evidence	$515KspeculativeLoading	$280K to $830KLoading
Micah Robinson	67.6%	+1.7range +0.3 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	+4.8range +4.2 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	$360KspeculativeLoading	$115K to $575KLoading
Xavier Edmonds	57.7%	+4.4range +2.7 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.5 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$550KspeculativeLoading	$345K to $995KLoading
Liutauras Lelevicius	55.6%	+3.2range +1.9 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	+4.5range +4.0 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	$430KspeculativeLoading	$265K to $695KLoading
Tanner Toolson	53.1%	-0.5range -2.0 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.5 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	$140KspeculativeLoading	$21K to $320KLoading
Jace Posey	21.1%	-0.6range -1.6 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$63KspeculativeLoading	$19K to $140KLoading
Vianney Salatchoum	9.0%	-0.7range -1.7 to -0.0Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Limited evidence	$40KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $75KLoading
Kayden Edwards	5.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$23Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$13K to $37KLoading
RJ Jones	3.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$23Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$13K to $37KLoading
Ashton Simmons	0.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$23Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$13K to $37KLoading
Trey Stuart	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$23Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$13K to $37KLoading
Adam Stewart	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$23Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$13K to $37KLoading
Drew McElroy	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$23Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$13K to $37KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.60M to $4.90M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 15; 6 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Brock Harding	78.5%	$640K	$410K to $990K	17.4%	$640K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidence
Jayden Pierre	75.4%	$575K	$360K to $880K	15.9%	$575K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidence
David Punch	71.7%	$515K	$280K to $830K	14.5%	$515K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidence
Micah Robinson	67.6%	$360K	$115K to $575K	10.6%	$360K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidence
Xavier Edmonds	57.7%	$550K	$345K to $995K	14.9%	$550K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidence
Liutauras Lelevicius	55.6%	$430K	$265K to $695K	11.9%	$430K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidence
Tanner Toolson	53.1%	$140K	$21K to $320K	4.2%	$140K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jace Posey	21.1%	$63K	$19K to $140K	1.9%	$63K in all four	$23K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Vianney Salatchoum	9.0%	$40K	$18K to $75K	1.1%	$40K in all four	$23K	Limited evidence
Kayden Edwards	5.7%	$23K	$13K to $37K	0.7%	$23K in all four	$23K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
RJ Jones	3.5%	$23K	$13K to $37K	0.7%	$23K in all four	$23K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Ashton Simmons	0.8%	$23K	$13K to $37K	0.7%	$23K in all four	$23K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Trey Stuart	0.1%	$23K	$13K to $37K	0.7%	$23K in all four	$23K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Adam Stewart	0.1%	$23K	$13K to $37K	0.7%	$23K in all four	$23K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Drew McElroy	0.1%	$23K	$13K to $37K	0.7%	$23K in all four	$23K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.60M to $4.90M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Texas Christian University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$15,620,468	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$15,620,468
Athletics department expenses	$155,989,500
Athletics department revenue	$155,989,500

Coverage and exclusions

31 of 35 games passed lineup acceptance (89%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

4 of 35 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$15,620,468	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$15,620,468	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	2
3 or more days	30

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	2
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology