Southern Utah

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Southern Utah, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Jaiden Feroah	76.4%	+1.3range +0.0 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.3 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$60KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $195KLoading
Tanner Hayhurst	74.0%	+1.0range -0.6 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.1 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$48KspeculativeLoading	$12K to $155KLoading
Elijah Duval	67.7%	-1.8range -3.0 to -0.6Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.2 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $45KLoading
Isaiah Cottrell	65.1%	-1.3range -2.5 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.2 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $55KLoading
Dylan Jones	58.1%	-2.6range -4.1 to -1.0Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.6 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $33KLoading
Cale Barclay	37.1%	-1.6range -2.4 to -0.7Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $26KLoading
Kai Burdick	36.2%	-0.9range -2.7 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.3 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $35KLoading
Lorenzo Abellar	27.2%	-2.6range -3.7 to -1.7Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.8 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $15KLoading
Jalen Lee	24.0%	-2.7range -4.2 to -0.9Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.7 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $16KLoading
Zach Bell	14.9%	-4.8range -6.1 to -3.6Limited evidence	+0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence	$2KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $7KLoading
Logan Stephens	13.1%	-0.7range -1.5 to -0.0Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.5 to +0.7Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $14KLoading
Brayden Johnson	2.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Zeplin Kidd	2.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Chuks Isitua	1.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Langston Binns	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $205K; 80% Range $76K to $540K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $200K to $210K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 15; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jaiden Feroah	76.4%	$60K	$18K to $195K	25.2%	$59K to $61K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tanner Hayhurst	74.0%	$48K	$12K to $155K	21.2%	$47K to $49K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Elijah Duval	67.7%	$9K	$1K to $45K	7.3%	$9K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaiah Cottrell	65.1%	$13K	$1K to $55K	9.9%	$13K to $14K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dylan Jones	58.1%	$5K	$1K to $33K	3.5%	$5K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cale Barclay	37.1%	$6K	$1K to $26K	4.6%	$6K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kai Burdick	36.2%	$9K	$1K to $35K	5.9%	$8K to $9K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Lorenzo Abellar	27.2%	$3K	$1K to $15K	1.1%	$3K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jalen Lee	24.0%	$3K	$1K to $16K	2.1%	$3K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zach Bell	14.9%	$2K	$1K to $7K	0.9%	$2K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Logan Stephens	13.1%	$4K	$1K to $14K	2.7%	$4K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brayden Johnson	2.6%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Zeplin Kidd	2.0%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Chuks Isitua	1.0%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Langston Binns	0.7%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$205K	$76K to $540K	100%	$200K to $210K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Southern Utah University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$1,674,288
Men's basketball expenses	$1,812,262
Athletics department expenses	$19,562,340
Athletics department revenue	$19,562,340

Coverage and exclusions

26 of 29 games passed lineup acceptance (90%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 29 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$1,674,288	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$1,812,262	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	8
3 or more days	19

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	4
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology