Radford

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Radford, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Del Jones	80.3%	-1.7range -3.1 to -0.2Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +2.8 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $45KLoading
Dennis Parker, Jr.	75.4%	+0.8range +0.0 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+4.3range +3.8 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$34KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $110KLoading
Jaylon Johnson	71.7%	+0.6range -0.4 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+4.0range +3.5 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	$29KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $87KLoading
Tyson Brown	70.3%	+1.2range -0.0 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.6 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$36KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $115KLoading
Lukas Walls	61.0%	+0.5range -1.0 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.8 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$24KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $81KLoading
Brennan Rigsby	47.7%	-0.4range -1.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $45KLoading
Mari Jordan	31.4%	-0.0range -1.1 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.4 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $31KLoading
Frederik Erichsen	30.7%	-0.5range -1.7 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.3 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $29KLoading
Louie Jordan	23.8%	-1.2range -2.3 to -0.1Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $17KLoading
Warren Keel	4.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Gabriel Ferreira	2.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Bradley Land	0.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $200K; 80% Range $73K to $520K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $190K to $235K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 3 floor only

The widest scenario range, $85K to $610K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Del Jones	80.3%	$9K	$1K to $45K	7.1%	$9K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dennis Parker, Jr.	75.4%	$34K	$10K to $110K	16.7%	$32K to $40K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaylon Johnson	71.7%	$29K	$8K to $87K	15.2%	$28K to $34K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyson Brown	70.3%	$36K	$11K to $115K	16.8%	$34K to $42K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Lukas Walls	61.0%	$24K	$4K to $81K	12.8%	$23K to $28K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brennan Rigsby	47.7%	$12K	$2K to $45K	7.8%	$12K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mari Jordan	31.4%	$10K	$2K to $31K	6.0%	$10K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Frederik Erichsen	30.7%	$8K	$1K to $29K	5.2%	$8K to $9K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Louie Jordan	23.8%	$5K	$1K to $17K	3.1%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Warren Keel	4.1%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Gabriel Ferreira	2.8%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Bradley Land	0.9%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$200K	$73K to $520K	100%	$190K to $235K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Radford University (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,225,866	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,225,866
Athletics department expenses	$14,870,883
Athletics department revenue	$14,870,883

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 29 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 29 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,225,866	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,225,866	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	5
3 or more days	22

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	3
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology