Oregon St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Oregon St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Josiah Lake II	84.2%	+2.7range +1.6 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	+6.7range +6.1 to +7.3Sufficient evidence	$380KspeculativeLoading	$145K to $1.05MLoading
Isaiah Sy	68.7%	+0.1range -1.3 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +3.9 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$110KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $315KLoading
Dez White	66.1%	-2.4range -3.8 to -1.1Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.6 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$26KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $155KLoading
Johan Munch	48.6%	-0.4range -1.9 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.5 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	$68KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $220KLoading
Olavi Suutela	43.9%	+0.2range -1.1 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.6 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	$76KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $220KLoading
Jorge Diaz Graham	42.2%	+1.8range +0.3 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.9 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$135KspeculativeLoading	$46K to $370KLoading
Keziah Ekissi	34.1%	-1.2range -2.3 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.8 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$35KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $120KLoading
Matija Samar	32.8%	-0.9range -2.4 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.6 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$36KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $125KLoading
Yaak Yaak	28.6%	-0.0range -1.5 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+2.0range +1.6 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	$51KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $145KLoading
Noah Amenhauser	27.2%	-0.8range -2.1 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.5 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	$35KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $110KLoading
Malcolm Christie	15.6%	-0.8range -1.8 to -0.0Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.9 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$21KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $62KLoading
Ja'Quavis Williford	5.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$8Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$3K to $19KLoading
Stephen Olowoniyi	2.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$8Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$3K to $19KLoading
Kaan Yarkut	0.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$8Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$3K to $19KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $1.15M; 80% Range $490K to $2.55M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $890K to $1.25M; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Josiah Lake II	84.2%	$380K	$145K to $1.05M	32.2%	$295K to $410K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Isaiah Sy	68.7%	$110K	$13K to $315K	11.8%	$86K to $120K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dez White	66.1%	$26K	$4K to $155K	2.8%	$21K to $29K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Johan Munch	48.6%	$68K	$8K to $220K	7.6%	$53K to $74K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Olavi Suutela	43.9%	$76K	$13K to $220K	8.0%	$59K to $82K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jorge Diaz Graham	42.2%	$135K	$46K to $370K	11.4%	$105K to $150K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Keziah Ekissi	34.1%	$35K	$6K to $120K	4.2%	$28K to $38K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matija Samar	32.8%	$36K	$6K to $125K	4.2%	$29K to $39K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Yaak Yaak	28.6%	$51K	$9K to $145K	5.3%	$40K to $55K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Noah Amenhauser	27.2%	$35K	$7K to $110K	4.0%	$28K to $39K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Malcolm Christie	15.6%	$21K	$5K to $62K	2.3%	$16K to $23K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ja'Quavis Williford	5.1%	$8K	$3K to $19K	0.7%	$6K to $8K	$8K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Stephen Olowoniyi	2.8%	$8K	$3K to $19K	0.7%	$6K to $8K	$8K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Kaan Yarkut	0.0%	$8K	$3K to $19K	0.7%	$6K to $8K	$8K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$1.15M	$490K to $2.55M	100%	$890K to $1.25M	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Oregon State University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$9,165,896
Men's basketball expenses	$6,899,222
Athletics department expenses	$100,306,447
Athletics department revenue	$104,767,703

Coverage and exclusions

31 of 33 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 33 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$9,165,896	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$6,899,222	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	4
3 or more days	26

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology