Old Dominion

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Old Dominion, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Jordan Battle	81.6%	+0.4range -0.7 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.5 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	$49KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $155KLoading
Ketron Shaw	68.6%	-1.8range -2.8 to -0.7Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.9 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $61KLoading
LJ Thomas	62.7%	-0.5range -1.7 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.1 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	$24KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $88KLoading
Robert Davis Jr.	57.5%	-0.2range -1.3 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +3.1 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$24KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $84KLoading
Jared Turner	51.7%	+2.0range +0.5 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	+3.9range +3.4 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	$64KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $230KLoading
Caelum Swanton-Rodger	48.7%	-0.3range -1.5 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.5 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	$19KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $68KLoading
Zacch Wiggins	46.1%	+0.5range -0.7 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.6 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$29KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $97KLoading
Scottie Hubbard	38.6%	+1.5range +0.4 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.5 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$38KspeculativeLoading	$12K to $125KLoading
Drew McKenna	22.0%	-0.1range -1.3 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+1.4range +1.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$12KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $38KLoading
Donovan Raymond	14.5%	-0.3range -1.1 to +0.4Limited evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Limited evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $25KLoading
Ben Nacey	5.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $7KLoading
Rieco Hellams	2.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $7KLoading
Cooper Jones	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $7KLoading
CJ Parker	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $7KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $340K; 80% Range $125K to $905K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $310K to $345K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jordan Battle	81.6%	$49K	$10K to $155K	16.2%	$46K to $51K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ketron Shaw	68.6%	$11K	$1K to $61K	5.1%	$10K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
LJ Thomas	62.7%	$24K	$3K to $88K	9.9%	$22K to $25K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Robert Davis Jr.	57.5%	$24K	$3K to $84K	9.4%	$22K to $25K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jared Turner	51.7%	$64K	$18K to $230K	17.1%	$59K to $66K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Caelum Swanton-Rodger	48.7%	$19K	$2K to $68K	7.8%	$18K to $20K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zacch Wiggins	46.1%	$29K	$6K to $97K	9.5%	$27K to $30K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Scottie Hubbard	38.6%	$38K	$12K to $125K	10.3%	$35K to $39K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Drew McKenna	22.0%	$12K	$3K to $38K	4.2%	$11K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Donovan Raymond	14.5%	$8K	$2K to $25K	2.8%	$7K to $8K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ben Nacey	5.1%	$2K	$1K to $7K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Rieco Hellams	2.0%	$2K	$1K to $7K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Cooper Jones	0.6%	$2K	$1K to $7K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
CJ Parker	0.3%	$2K	$1K to $7K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$340K	$125K to $905K	100%	$310K to $345K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Old Dominion University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$4,218,097	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$4,218,097
Athletics department expenses	$53,232,824
Athletics department revenue	$53,232,824

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (88%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

4 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$4,218,097	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$4,218,097	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	5
3 or more days	25

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.6
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	4
Longest run of consecutive away games	5

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology