Northwestern LA

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Northwestern LA, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Micah Thomas	75.5%	-1.1range -2.5 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +3.0 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $58KLoading
Chris Mubiru	65.6%	+0.3range -0.8 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +3.1 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$32KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $115KLoading
Izzy Miles	60.2%	-2.4range -3.2 to -1.4Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.1 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $29KLoading
Willie Williams	58.9%	+0.5range -0.5 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.9 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	$33KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $130KLoading
Landyn Jumawan	51.6%	-1.9range -3.0 to -0.6Sufficient evidence	+2.3range +1.9 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $31KLoading
Kordrick Turner	35.8%	-1.4range -2.6 to +0.0Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.4 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $29KLoading
CJ Larry	33.6%	-1.0range -2.1 to -0.1Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.4 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $29KLoading
Justin Redmond	33.5%	-1.4range -2.4 to -0.4Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.4 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $23KLoading
Chip Brunt	24.9%	-1.6range -2.8 to -0.4Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $18KLoading
Omar Adegbola	22.5%	-1.4range -2.5 to -0.3Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $18KLoading
Moustapha Loum	17.7%	-1.1range -2.0 to -0.2Limited evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $15KLoading
J.C. Riley Jr.	17.5%	+0.0range -0.9 to +1.1Limited evidence	+1.0range +0.9 to +1.1Limited evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $37KLoading
Quentin Bolton Jr.	2.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $175K; 80% Range $63K to $465K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $170K to $180K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 1 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Micah Thomas	75.5%	$15K	$1K to $58K	12.3%	$14K to $15K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chris Mubiru	65.6%	$32K	$7K to $115K	16.4%	$31K to $32K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Izzy Miles	60.2%	$5K	$1K to $29K	4.0%	$5K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Willie Williams	58.9%	$33K	$9K to $130K	16.7%	$33K to $34K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Landyn Jumawan	51.6%	$6K	$1K to $31K	6.0%	$6K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kordrick Turner	35.8%	$6K	$1K to $29K	5.7%	$6K to $7K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
CJ Larry	33.6%	$7K	$1K to $29K	5.9%	$7K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Justin Redmond	33.5%	$6K	$1K to $23K	5.0%	$6K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chip Brunt	24.9%	$4K	$1K to $18K	3.7%	$4K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Omar Adegbola	22.5%	$5K	$1K to $18K	3.7%	$4K to $5K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Moustapha Loum	17.7%	$4K	$1K to $15K	3.5%	$4K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
J.C. Riley Jr.	17.5%	$9K	$2K to $37K	4.7%	$9K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Quentin Bolton Jr.	2.8%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.8%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$175K	$63K to $465K	100%	$170K to $180K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Northwestern State University of Louisiana (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$1,811,320
Men's basketball expenses	$1,285,774
Athletics department expenses	$14,210,359
Athletics department revenue	$14,566,162

Coverage and exclusions

24 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (80%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

6 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$1,811,320	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$1,285,774	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	11
3 or more days	18

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	5

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology