Morehead St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Morehead St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
George Marshall	78.0%	-0.9range -2.2 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.5 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $56KLoading
Chase Dawson	64.1%	-1.2range -2.8 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.6 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $40KLoading
Davion Cunningham	63.8%	-1.6range -3.2 to -0.3Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.5 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $36KLoading
Anouar Mellouk	63.7%	-1.3range -2.3 to -0.4Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.8 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $37KLoading
Jon Carroll	62.3%	-0.5range -1.3 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +3.1 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $50KLoading
Josiah LeGree	42.3%	+0.5range -0.5 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.4 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $60KLoading
Vince Dawson III	40.2%	+0.2range -0.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $47KLoading
Tamaury Releford	33.9%	+2.5range +1.6 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.3 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$34KspeculativeLoading	$9K to $135KLoading
Tyonne Farrell	28.0%	+1.0range +0.2 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.7 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $47KLoading
Clayton Parker	22.1%	-1.9range -3.0 to -0.9Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $13KLoading
Jacob Wilson	1.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading
Jace Winkleman	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $4KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $175K; 80% Range $63K to $475K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $160K to $215K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 2 floor only

The widest scenario range, $81K to $575K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
George Marshall	78.0%	$15K	$1K to $56K	12.2%	$14K to $18K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chase Dawson	64.1%	$9K	$1K to $40K	8.1%	$8K to $11K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Davion Cunningham	63.8%	$7K	$1K to $36K	6.5%	$7K to $9K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Anouar Mellouk	63.7%	$8K	$1K to $37K	7.6%	$7K to $10K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jon Carroll	62.3%	$14K	$2K to $50K	11.3%	$13K to $18K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Josiah LeGree	42.3%	$18K	$5K to $60K	10.2%	$17K to $23K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Vince Dawson III	40.2%	$14K	$3K to $47K	8.9%	$13K to $18K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tamaury Releford	33.9%	$34K	$9K to $135K	16.7%	$31K to $42K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyonne Farrell	28.0%	$15K	$4K to $47K	7.8%	$14K to $19K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Clayton Parker	22.1%	$3K	$1K to $13K	2.3%	$3K to $4K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jacob Wilson	1.0%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.8%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jace Winkleman	0.4%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.8%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$175K	$63K to $475K	100%	$160K to $215K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Morehead State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$1,888,515
Men's basketball expenses	$1,967,263
Athletics department expenses	$11,260,314
Athletics department revenue	$11,260,314

Coverage and exclusions

27 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (90%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$1,888,515	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$1,967,263	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	11
3 or more days	16

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	4
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology