Michigan St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Michigan St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Jeremy Fears Jr.	81.3%	+7.7range +6.5 to +8.6Sufficient evidence	+9.4range +8.6 to +10.0Sufficient evidence	$965KspeculativeLoading	$615K to $1.55MLoading
Coen Carr	72.7%	+3.1range +2.0 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	+6.0range +5.4 to +6.7Sufficient evidence	$375KspeculativeLoading	$180K to $580KLoading
Jaxon Kohler	68.8%	+7.1range +6.0 to +8.1Sufficient evidence	+7.7range +7.0 to +8.2Sufficient evidence	$740KspeculativeLoading	$490K to $1.15MLoading
Carson Cooper	66.2%	+3.6range +2.5 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	+5.7range +5.1 to +6.4Sufficient evidence	$395KspeculativeLoading	$215K to $605KLoading
Jordan Scott	52.6%	+2.6range +0.9 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.5 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$240KspeculativeLoading	$84K to $405KLoading
Kur Teng	42.6%	+3.8range +2.4 to +5.0Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.2 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$265KspeculativeLoading	$155K to $400KLoading
Cameron Ward	37.1%	+1.8range +0.3 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.3 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$155KspeculativeLoading	$51K to $265KLoading
Divine Ugochukwu	25.5%	+2.2range +0.9 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.6 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$125KspeculativeLoading	$52K to $210KLoading
Trey Fort	23.0%	-1.3range -2.4 to -0.2Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$49KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $125KLoading
Jesse McCulloch	15.1%	+0.6range -0.1 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$61KspeculativeLoading	$26K to $110KLoading
Denham Wojcik	12.2%	-0.9range -1.8 to -0.0Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.6 to +0.7Limited evidence	$41KspeculativeLoading	$19K to $82KLoading
Nick Sanders	1.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Brennan Walton	0.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Colin Walton	0.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.55M; 80% Range $2.55M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.55M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jeremy Fears Jr.	81.3%	$965K	$615K to $1.55M	26.1%	$965K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Coen Carr	72.7%	$375K	$180K to $580K	11.3%	$375K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Jaxon Kohler	68.8%	$740K	$490K to $1.15M	20.3%	$740K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Carson Cooper	66.2%	$395K	$215K to $605K	11.6%	$395K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Jordan Scott	52.6%	$240K	$84K to $405K	7.3%	$240K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Kur Teng	42.6%	$265K	$155K to $400K	7.8%	$265K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Cameron Ward	37.1%	$155K	$51K to $265K	4.6%	$155K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Divine Ugochukwu	25.5%	$125K	$52K to $210K	3.7%	$125K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Trey Fort	23.0%	$49K	$18K to $125K	1.4%	$49K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jesse McCulloch	15.1%	$61K	$26K to $110K	1.8%	$61K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Denham Wojcik	12.2%	$41K	$19K to $82K	1.1%	$41K in all four	$25K	Limited evidence
Nick Sanders	1.4%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Brennan Walton	0.8%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Colin Walton	0.8%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.55M	$2.55M to $4.95M	100%	$3.55M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Michigan State University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$21,818,193
Men's basketball expenses	$20,566,735
Athletics department expenses	$160,697,176
Athletics department revenue	$160,697,176

Coverage and exclusions

33 of 35 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 35 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$21,818,193	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$20,566,735	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	2
3 or more days	32

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology